USGS data establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system is long enough to generate them, with the physical upper limit around 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction zones such as Chile’s. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, and 2026 activity has peaked at only 7.8, consistent with historical patterns showing no M9+ events in recent decades. With roughly six months left before 2027, the near-term window further reduces any chance of an unprecedented multi-segment rupture. Trader consensus at 95.5% “No” reflects this tectonic reality, though an unforeseen revision in fault-length estimates or an extreme, low-probability cascade could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật10,0 hoặc cao hơn trận động đất trước năm 2027?
10,0 hoặc cao hơn trận động đất trước năm 2027?
Có
$724,011 KL.
$724,011 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$724,011 KL.
$724,011 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system is long enough to generate them, with the physical upper limit around 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction zones such as Chile’s. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, and 2026 activity has peaked at only 7.8, consistent with historical patterns showing no M9+ events in recent decades. With roughly six months left before 2027, the near-term window further reduces any chance of an unprecedented multi-segment rupture. Trader consensus at 95.5% “No” reflects this tectonic reality, though an unforeseen revision in fault-length estimates or an extreme, low-probability cascade could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$724,011Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system is long enough to generate them, with the physical upper limit around 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction zones such as Chile’s. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, and 2026 activity has peaked at only 7.8, consistent with historical patterns showing no M9+ events in recent decades. With roughly six months left before 2027, the near-term window further reduces any chance of an unprecedented multi-segment rupture. Trader consensus at 95.5% “No” reflects this tectonic reality, though an unforeseen revision in fault-length estimates or an extreme, low-probability cascade could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$724,011Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS data establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system is long enough to generate them, with the physical upper limit around 9.5–9.6 on the longest subduction zones such as Chile’s. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake of 1960, and 2026 activity has peaked at only 7.8, consistent with historical patterns showing no M9+ events in recent decades. With roughly six months left before 2027, the near-term window further reduces any chance of an unprecedented multi-segment rupture. Trader consensus at 95.5% “No” reflects this tectonic reality, though an unforeseen revision in fault-length estimates or an extreme, low-probability cascade could theoretically alter the outcome before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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