USGS data establish that no known fault is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, as such an event would require rupture spanning much of the planet’s circumference. The moment magnitude scale links energy release directly to fault length and slip, and the largest reliably recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Global seismic catalogs through 2026 show no events exceeding 9.2, confirming the physical limits imposed by plate tectonics. Trader consensus at 99.2% for “No” before 2027 aligns with this established upper bound. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or discovery of previously unknown megathrust structures could alter the outlook, though neither is supported by current monitoring networks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật10,0 hoặc cao hơn trận động đất trước năm 2027?
10,0 hoặc cao hơn trận động đất trước năm 2027?
Có
<1% khả năng
$814,999 KL.
$814,999 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
<1% khả năng
$814,999 KL.
$814,999 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data establish that no known fault is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, as such an event would require rupture spanning much of the planet’s circumference. The moment magnitude scale links energy release directly to fault length and slip, and the largest reliably recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Global seismic catalogs through 2026 show no events exceeding 9.2, confirming the physical limits imposed by plate tectonics. Trader consensus at 99.2% for “No” before 2027 aligns with this established upper bound. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or discovery of previously unknown megathrust structures could alter the outlook, though neither is supported by current monitoring networks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Thị trường mở: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$814,999Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data establish that no known fault is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, as such an event would require rupture spanning much of the planet’s circumference. The moment magnitude scale links energy release directly to fault length and slip, and the largest reliably recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Global seismic catalogs through 2026 show no events exceeding 9.2, confirming the physical limits imposed by plate tectonics. Trader consensus at 99.2% for “No” before 2027 aligns with this established upper bound. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or discovery of previously unknown megathrust structures could alter the outlook, though neither is supported by current monitoring networks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Khối lượng
$814,999Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...USGS data establish that no known fault is long enough to produce a magnitude 10.0 earthquake, as such an event would require rupture spanning much of the planet’s circumference. The moment magnitude scale links energy release directly to fault length and slip, and the largest reliably recorded event reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960. Global seismic catalogs through 2026 show no events exceeding 9.2, confirming the physical limits imposed by plate tectonics. Trader consensus at 99.2% for “No” before 2027 aligns with this established upper bound. Only an unforeseen revision in magnitude scaling or discovery of previously unknown megathrust structures could alter the outlook, though neither is supported by current monitoring networks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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