The 71% implied probability for "Yes" on "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" reflects traders' assessment that none of the market's defined high-impact triggers—such as a Russia-NATO invasion, major WTI crude spike above $150, U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or regime change, Fed policy shifts meeting specific criteria, or confirmation of extraterrestrial life—have occurred in the first five months of the year. Monthly iterations of the series have consistently resolved to "Nothing" through May, signaling sustained absence of qualifying geopolitical, military, or economic escalations. With six months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution, current pricing incorporates the low observed frequency of such events amid ongoing diplomatic and policy stability, while leaving room for late-year developments to alter the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông có gì xảy ra: 2026
Không có gì xảy ra: 2026
Có
$592,949 KL.
$592,949 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$592,949 KL.
$592,949 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfThe 71% implied probability for "Yes" on "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" reflects traders' assessment that none of the market's defined high-impact triggers—such as a Russia-NATO invasion, major WTI crude spike above $150, U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or regime change, Fed policy shifts meeting specific criteria, or confirmation of extraterrestrial life—have occurred in the first five months of the year. Monthly iterations of the series have consistently resolved to "Nothing" through May, signaling sustained absence of qualifying geopolitical, military, or economic escalations. With six months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution, current pricing incorporates the low observed frequency of such events amid ongoing diplomatic and policy stability, while leaving room for late-year developments to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$592,949Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfThe 71% implied probability for "Yes" on "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" reflects traders' assessment that none of the market's defined high-impact triggers—such as a Russia-NATO invasion, major WTI crude spike above $150, U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or regime change, Fed policy shifts meeting specific criteria, or confirmation of extraterrestrial life—have occurred in the first five months of the year. Monthly iterations of the series have consistently resolved to "Nothing" through May, signaling sustained absence of qualifying geopolitical, military, or economic escalations. With six months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution, current pricing incorporates the low observed frequency of such events amid ongoing diplomatic and policy stability, while leaving room for late-year developments to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$592,949Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 71% implied probability for "Yes" on "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" reflects traders' assessment that none of the market's defined high-impact triggers—such as a Russia-NATO invasion, major WTI crude spike above $150, U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or regime change, Fed policy shifts meeting specific criteria, or confirmation of extraterrestrial life—have occurred in the first five months of the year. Monthly iterations of the series have consistently resolved to "Nothing" through May, signaling sustained absence of qualifying geopolitical, military, or economic escalations. With six months remaining until the December 31, 2026 resolution, current pricing incorporates the low observed frequency of such events amid ongoing diplomatic and policy stability, while leaving room for late-year developments to alter the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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