Trader consensus prices a 64% chance that none of the market's specified high-impact events—President Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping exiting power, U.S. invasion of Iran, or collapse of the Iranian regime—occur by December 31, 2026. This reflects a quiet first quarter, with no triggering developments amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions; President Trump's recent announcement of a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire, alongside Israel's U.S.-brokered 10-day truce in Lebanon, has eased escalation fears around invasion or regime change risks. Stable leadership in Beijing and Washington, absent any resignation signals or impeachment momentum ahead of midterms, further bolsters the "nothing happens" positioning, though diplomatic setbacks or election surprises could prompt rapid repricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông có gì xảy ra: 2026
Không có gì xảy ra: 2026
$502,734 KL.
$502,734 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$502,734 KL.
$502,734 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 64% chance that none of the market's specified high-impact events—President Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping exiting power, U.S. invasion of Iran, or collapse of the Iranian regime—occur by December 31, 2026. This reflects a quiet first quarter, with no triggering developments amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions; President Trump's recent announcement of a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire, alongside Israel's U.S.-brokered 10-day truce in Lebanon, has eased escalation fears around invasion or regime change risks. Stable leadership in Beijing and Washington, absent any resignation signals or impeachment momentum ahead of midterms, further bolsters the "nothing happens" positioning, though diplomatic setbacks or election surprises could prompt rapid repricing.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$502,734Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 64% chance that none of the market's specified high-impact events—President Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping exiting power, U.S. invasion of Iran, or collapse of the Iranian regime—occur by December 31, 2026. This reflects a quiet first quarter, with no triggering developments amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions; President Trump's recent announcement of a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire, alongside Israel's U.S.-brokered 10-day truce in Lebanon, has eased escalation fears around invasion or regime change risks. Stable leadership in Beijing and Washington, absent any resignation signals or impeachment momentum ahead of midterms, further bolsters the "nothing happens" positioning, though diplomatic setbacks or election surprises could prompt rapid repricing.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$502,734Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 64% chance that none of the market's specified high-impact events—President Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping exiting power, U.S. invasion of Iran, or collapse of the Iranian regime—occur by December 31, 2026. This reflects a quiet first quarter, with no triggering developments amid ongoing but contained Middle East tensions; President Trump's recent announcement of a temporary U.S.-Iran ceasefire, alongside Israel's U.S.-brokered 10-day truce in Lebanon, has eased escalation fears around invasion or regime change risks. Stable leadership in Beijing and Washington, absent any resignation signals or impeachment momentum ahead of midterms, further bolsters the "nothing happens" positioning, though diplomatic setbacks or election surprises could prompt rapid repricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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