Recent bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a draft imposing a legal duty of care on frontier AI developers, with provisions for risk disclosure, testing, and potential government intervention on unsafe models. However, persistent disagreements over enforcement language, preemption of state laws, and liability standards have stalled final text as of mid-September 2026. The compressed calendar before November midterms, combined with limited House progress on companion measures like the Great American AI Act, leaves insufficient time for floor action and presidential signature. Traders price these procedural and partisan barriers as the dominant factor behind the 81.5% probability assigned to no enactment before 2027.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
19% khả năng
$103,265 KL.
$103,265 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
19% khả năng
$103,265 KL.
$103,265 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a draft imposing a legal duty of care on frontier AI developers, with provisions for risk disclosure, testing, and potential government intervention on unsafe models. However, persistent disagreements over enforcement language, preemption of state laws, and liability standards have stalled final text as of mid-September 2026. The compressed calendar before November midterms, combined with limited House progress on companion measures like the Great American AI Act, leaves insufficient time for floor action and presidential signature. Traders price these procedural and partisan barriers as the dominant factor behind the 81.5% probability assigned to no enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$103,265Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a draft imposing a legal duty of care on frontier AI developers, with provisions for risk disclosure, testing, and potential government intervention on unsafe models. However, persistent disagreements over enforcement language, preemption of state laws, and liability standards have stalled final text as of mid-September 2026. The compressed calendar before November midterms, combined with limited House progress on companion measures like the Great American AI Act, leaves insufficient time for floor action and presidential signature. Traders price these procedural and partisan barriers as the dominant factor behind the 81.5% probability assigned to no enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$103,265Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Recent bipartisan Senate negotiations led by Majority Leader John Thune, Ted Cruz, and Amy Klobuchar have advanced a draft imposing a legal duty of care on frontier AI developers, with provisions for risk disclosure, testing, and potential government intervention on unsafe models. However, persistent disagreements over enforcement language, preemption of state laws, and liability standards have stalled final text as of mid-September 2026. The compressed calendar before November midterms, combined with limited House progress on companion measures like the Great American AI Act, leaves insufficient time for floor action and presidential signature. Traders price these procedural and partisan barriers as the dominant factor behind the 81.5% probability assigned to no enactment before 2027.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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