Senate negotiations on AI safety legislation, including a proposed duty of care for frontier model developers and government verification powers, remain stalled amid partisan disagreements over enforcement language and preemption of state rules. Recent September 2026 discussions led by Senators Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz have not produced a finalized bill, while the compressed calendar before November midterms leaves little floor time. House committees advanced narrower measures on labeling, incident reporting, and a NIST center earlier in the year, yet comprehensive frontier safety bills with shutdown authority or training restrictions have not advanced to enactment. Administration statements emphasize existing regulatory tools over new statutory mandates, and historical patterns of divided Congresses confirm low passage rates for complex tech policy in election years. Traders thus assign an 86.5% probability to no qualifying federal AI safety bill becoming law by December 31, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
18% khả năng
$110,785 KL.
$110,785 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
18% khả năng
$110,785 KL.
$110,785 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Senate negotiations on AI safety legislation, including a proposed duty of care for frontier model developers and government verification powers, remain stalled amid partisan disagreements over enforcement language and preemption of state rules. Recent September 2026 discussions led by Senators Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz have not produced a finalized bill, while the compressed calendar before November midterms leaves little floor time. House committees advanced narrower measures on labeling, incident reporting, and a NIST center earlier in the year, yet comprehensive frontier safety bills with shutdown authority or training restrictions have not advanced to enactment. Administration statements emphasize existing regulatory tools over new statutory mandates, and historical patterns of divided Congresses confirm low passage rates for complex tech policy in election years. Traders thus assign an 86.5% probability to no qualifying federal AI safety bill becoming law by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$110,785Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Senate negotiations on AI safety legislation, including a proposed duty of care for frontier model developers and government verification powers, remain stalled amid partisan disagreements over enforcement language and preemption of state rules. Recent September 2026 discussions led by Senators Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz have not produced a finalized bill, while the compressed calendar before November midterms leaves little floor time. House committees advanced narrower measures on labeling, incident reporting, and a NIST center earlier in the year, yet comprehensive frontier safety bills with shutdown authority or training restrictions have not advanced to enactment. Administration statements emphasize existing regulatory tools over new statutory mandates, and historical patterns of divided Congresses confirm low passage rates for complex tech policy in election years. Traders thus assign an 86.5% probability to no qualifying federal AI safety bill becoming law by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$110,785Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Senate negotiations on AI safety legislation, including a proposed duty of care for frontier model developers and government verification powers, remain stalled amid partisan disagreements over enforcement language and preemption of state rules. Recent September 2026 discussions led by Senators Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz have not produced a finalized bill, while the compressed calendar before November midterms leaves little floor time. House committees advanced narrower measures on labeling, incident reporting, and a NIST center earlier in the year, yet comprehensive frontier safety bills with shutdown authority or training restrictions have not advanced to enactment. Administration statements emphasize existing regulatory tools over new statutory mandates, and historical patterns of divided Congresses confirm low passage rates for complex tech policy in election years. Traders thus assign an 86.5% probability to no qualifying federal AI safety bill becoming law by December 31, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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