Recent U.S. labor market data, including the August employment report and weekly jobless claims, have shown modest softening in hiring momentum and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate from prior lows near 4.0%. This trajectory has anchored trader consensus around a 4.1% print for September, reflected in the highest market-implied probability. Broader indicators such as private payroll growth, quits rates, and labor force participation continue to support expectations of a measured increase rather than sharp acceleration. The upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics release, combined with upcoming FOMC communications on monetary policy, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if incoming figures deviate from consensus forecasts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4.1% 38%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 16%
4.3% 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
5%
3.9%
5%
4.0%
16%
4.1%
38%
4.2%
26%
4.3%
11%
4.4%
6%
4.5%
9%
≥4.6%
4%
4.1% 38%
4.2% 26%
4.0% 16%
4.3% 11%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 2, 2026
≤3.8%
$589 KL.
5%
3.9%
$105 KL.
5%
4.0%
$62 KL.
16%
4.1%
$513 KL.
38%
4.2%
$84 KL.
26%
4.3%
$62 KL.
11%
4.4%
$176 KL.
6%
4.5%
$505 KL.
9%
≥4.6%
$505 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data, including the August employment report and weekly jobless claims, have shown modest softening in hiring momentum and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate from prior lows near 4.0%. This trajectory has anchored trader consensus around a 4.1% print for September, reflected in the highest market-implied probability. Broader indicators such as private payroll growth, quits rates, and labor force participation continue to support expectations of a measured increase rather than sharp acceleration. The upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics release, combined with upcoming FOMC communications on monetary policy, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if incoming figures deviate from consensus forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Thị trường mở: Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,576Ngày kết thúc
Oct 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data, including the August employment report and weekly jobless claims, have shown modest softening in hiring momentum and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate from prior lows near 4.0%. This trajectory has anchored trader consensus around a 4.1% print for September, reflected in the highest market-implied probability. Broader indicators such as private payroll growth, quits rates, and labor force participation continue to support expectations of a measured increase rather than sharp acceleration. The upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics release, combined with upcoming FOMC communications on monetary policy, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if incoming figures deviate from consensus forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Khối lượng
$2,576Ngày kết thúc
Oct 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 4, 2026, 12:35 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market data, including the August employment report and weekly jobless claims, have shown modest softening in hiring momentum and a gradual rise in the unemployment rate from prior lows near 4.0%. This trajectory has anchored trader consensus around a 4.1% print for September, reflected in the highest market-implied probability. Broader indicators such as private payroll growth, quits rates, and labor force participation continue to support expectations of a measured increase rather than sharp acceleration. The upcoming Bureau of Labor Statistics release, combined with upcoming FOMC communications on monetary policy, remains the key near-term catalyst that could shift probabilities if incoming figures deviate from consensus forecasts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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