Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close shows tight competition between <$6,000 at 31.5% implied probability and $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting uncertainty from March's CPI surge to 3.3%—the highest since 2024—driven by Middle East tensions and 12.5% energy inflation. With the index near 7,126 as of April 17, this prices in risks of sustained higher-for-longer Fed funds rates around 3.4% per the latest dot plot, offsetting robust CY2026 earnings growth estimates of 17%. Key differentiators include Q1 earnings delivery starting now, April 10 CPI revisions, and geopolitical de-escalation; persistent inflation could tip toward sub-6,000, while Fed cuts and AI-driven profits favor upside bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhat will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
What will S&P 500 (SPX) close at end of 2026?
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
$7,500-$8,000 12%
$19,167 KL.
$19,167 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
32%
$6,000-$6,500
18%
$6,500-$7,000
16%
$7,000-$7,500
23%
$7,500-$8,000
12%
>$8,000
11%
<$6,000 32%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 16%
$7,500-$8,000 12%
$19,167 KL.
$19,167 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,576 KL.
32%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,351 KL.
18%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,869 KL.
16%
$7,000-$7,500
$923 KL.
23%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,654 KL.
12%
>$8,000
$1,794 KL.
11%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close shows tight competition between <$6,000 at 31.5% implied probability and $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting uncertainty from March's CPI surge to 3.3%—the highest since 2024—driven by Middle East tensions and 12.5% energy inflation. With the index near 7,126 as of April 17, this prices in risks of sustained higher-for-longer Fed funds rates around 3.4% per the latest dot plot, offsetting robust CY2026 earnings growth estimates of 17%. Key differentiators include Q1 earnings delivery starting now, April 10 CPI revisions, and geopolitical de-escalation; persistent inflation could tip toward sub-6,000, while Fed cuts and AI-driven profits favor upside bins.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Thị trường mở: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$19,167Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close shows tight competition between <$6,000 at 31.5% implied probability and $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting uncertainty from March's CPI surge to 3.3%—the highest since 2024—driven by Middle East tensions and 12.5% energy inflation. With the index near 7,126 as of April 17, this prices in risks of sustained higher-for-longer Fed funds rates around 3.4% per the latest dot plot, offsetting robust CY2026 earnings growth estimates of 17%. Key differentiators include Q1 earnings delivery starting now, April 10 CPI revisions, and geopolitical de-escalation; persistent inflation could tip toward sub-6,000, while Fed cuts and AI-driven profits favor upside bins.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Khối lượng
$19,167Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Polymarket for the S&P 500 year-end 2026 close shows tight competition between <$6,000 at 31.5% implied probability and $7,000-$7,500 at 23%, reflecting uncertainty from March's CPI surge to 3.3%—the highest since 2024—driven by Middle East tensions and 12.5% energy inflation. With the index near 7,126 as of April 17, this prices in risks of sustained higher-for-longer Fed funds rates around 3.4% per the latest dot plot, offsetting robust CY2026 earnings growth estimates of 17%. Key differentiators include Q1 earnings delivery starting now, April 10 CPI revisions, and geopolitical de-escalation; persistent inflation could tip toward sub-6,000, while Fed cuts and AI-driven profits favor upside bins.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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