Strong trader consensus behind the 96.5% “No” outcome for a Vatican III council in 2026 stems from the absence of any official Vatican announcement or preparatory signals under Pope Leo XIV, despite occasional external calls such as the Armenian Apostolic Church leader’s May 2026 appeal during a private audience. Historical precedent shows ecumenical councils require years of planning, broad consensus among bishops, and clear papal initiative—none of which materialized amid 2026’s focus on the Jubilee of Hope closure, consistory, and ongoing implementation of Vatican II. Precursor events like guild-style synods or curial statements have stayed silent on convening a new council this year. A realistic upset would require an abrupt papal decree or extraordinary consistory pivot in the remaining months, though such a late surprise remains improbable given the Church’s deliberate pace and lack of visible momentum.