Merab Dvalishvili holds the clear lead in trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for Petr Yan’s next bout, reflecting the ongoing trilogy narrative after Yan reclaimed the bantamweight title via unanimous decision over Dvalishvili at UFC 323 in December 2025. Yan’s minor back surgery and extended recovery timeline into summer 2026 delayed immediate follow-up booking, allowing both fighters additional preparation while UFC officials signaled the rubber match as the priority. Sean O’Malley sits at 9.8% as the most plausible alternative should the trilogy slip past October, fueled by his recent public deadline-setting comments and history of competitive exchanges with Yan. Lower-probability names such as Alexander Volkanovski, Song Yadong, and Umar Nurmagomedov remain distant options tied to potential title-contender positioning or stylistic matchups, but lack confirmed scheduling momentum or recent direct developments that would shift pricing. The market reflects a division still anchored by the Yan-Dvalishvili rivalry while awaiting official confirmation of the next card.