The art market's selective recovery favors the No side, with the 70.5% implied probability reflecting limited supply of works estimated at or above the $150 million threshold for the remainder of 2026. Spring auctions delivered standout results, including Jackson Pollock's Number 7A at $181.2 million, yet the fall calendar lacks comparable guaranteed masterpieces from major estates, and buyer appetite remains concentrated on established blue-chip names with strong provenance. Historical patterns show such nine-figure hammer prices occur sporadically, often tied to exceptional single-owner collections rather than routine seasons, leaving few clear catalysts before year-end resolution.