Spain holds a narrow trader consensus edge at 17.2% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting their top FIFA seeding, flawless European qualification campaign, and golden generation featuring Lamine Yamal and Pedri, with a favorable group draw alongside Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. France trails closely at 16.4% on Mbappé-led depth and consistent knockout prowess, while England's 11% acknowledges squad talent despite qualifier stumbles. The bunched leaderboard underscores the expanded 48-team field's volatility—top-two group advancement plus eight best third-placers boosts dark horse paths—amid defending champions Argentina's Messi aging concerns at 39 and Brazil's transitional form, keeping the race intensely competitive ahead of the June kickoff across North America.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於西班牙 17.1%
法國 16.4%
英格蘭 11.0%
阿根廷 8.8%
$661,761,357 交易量
$661,761,357 交易量

西班牙
17%

法國
16%

英格蘭
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
2%

日本
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

摩洛哥
2%

美國
1%

墨西哥
1%

瑞士
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

土耳其
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

瑞典
1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

南韓
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

捷克
<1%

埃及
<1%

伊朗
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%
西班牙 17.1%
法國 16.4%
英格蘭 11.0%
阿根廷 8.8%
$661,761,357 交易量
$661,761,357 交易量

西班牙
17%

法國
16%

英格蘭
11%

阿根廷
9%

巴西
9%

葡萄牙
7%

德國
5%

荷蘭
3%

挪威
2%

日本
2%

比利時
2%

哥倫比亞
2%

摩洛哥
2%

美國
1%

墨西哥
1%

瑞士
1%

烏拉圭
1%

克羅埃西亞
1%

土耳其
1%

厄瓜多
1%

塞內加爾
1%

加拿大
1%

奧地利
1%

瑞典
1%

巴拉圭
<1%

象牙海岸
<1%

南韓
<1%

波斯尼亞與赫塞哥維納
<1%

蘇格蘭
<1%

捷克
<1%

埃及
<1%

伊朗
<1%

加納
<1%

阿爾及利亞
<1%

突尼西亞
<1%

巴拿馬
<1%

南非
<1%

剛果民主共和國
<1%

澳洲
<1%

沙烏地阿拉伯
<1%

紐西蘭
<1%

海地
<1%

約旦
<1%

庫拉索
<1%

烏茲別克
<1%

伊拉克
<1%

佛得角
<1%

卡達
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a narrow trader consensus edge at 17.2% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reflecting their top FIFA seeding, flawless European qualification campaign, and golden generation featuring Lamine Yamal and Pedri, with a favorable group draw alongside Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay. France trails closely at 16.4% on Mbappé-led depth and consistent knockout prowess, while England's 11% acknowledges squad talent despite qualifier stumbles. The bunched leaderboard underscores the expanded 48-team field's volatility—top-two group advancement plus eight best third-placers boosts dark horse paths—amid defending champions Argentina's Messi aging concerns at 39 and Brazil's transitional form, keeping the race intensely competitive ahead of the June kickoff across North America.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions