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icon for 巴西總統選舉
政治·宏觀選舉2

巴西總統選舉

icon for 巴西總統選舉
政治·宏觀選舉2

巴西總統選舉

弗拉維奧·博索納羅 54.6%

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 43%

雷南·桑托斯 1.0%

奧古斯托·庫里 <1%

Polymarket

$151,136,983 交易量

弗拉維奧·博索納羅 54.6%

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦 43%

雷南·桑托斯 1.0%

奧古斯托·庫里 <1%

Polymarket

$151,136,983 交易量

icon for 弗拉維奧·博索納羅

弗拉維奧·博索納羅

$10,919,381 交易量

55%

icon for 路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦

路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦

$11,328,556 交易量

43%

icon for 雷南·桑托斯

雷南·桑托斯

$13,649,828 交易量

1%

icon for 奧古斯托·庫里

奧古斯托·庫里

$4,971,196 交易量

<1%

icon for 塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯

塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯

$14,077,543 交易量

<1%

icon for 賈伊爾·博爾索納羅

賈伊爾·博爾索納羅

$7,019,115 交易量

<1%

icon for 費爾南多·哈達德

費爾南多·哈達德

$7,537,916 交易量

<1%

icon for 米歇爾·波索納羅

米歇爾·波索納羅

$10,363,567 交易量

<1%

icon for 愛德華多·博索納羅

愛德華多·博索納羅

$10,451,615 交易量

<1%

icon for 拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧

拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧

$10,435,681 交易量

<1%

icon for 羅納爾多·卡亞多

羅納爾多·卡亞多

$7,640,861 交易量

<1%

icon for 羅梅烏·澤馬

羅梅烏·澤馬

$7,521,292 交易量

<1%

icon for 卡米洛·桑塔納

卡米洛·桑塔納

$5,584,533 交易量

<1%

icon for 傑拉爾多·阿爾克明

傑拉爾多·阿爾克明

$6,296,044 交易量

<1%

icon for 愛德華多·萊特

愛德華多·萊特

$7,986,937 交易量

<1%

icon for 阿爾多·雷貝洛

阿爾多·雷貝洛

$4,956,808 交易量

<1%

icon for 特蕾莎・克里斯蒂娜

特蕾莎・克里斯蒂娜

$4,015,097 交易量

<1%

icon for 埃爾德·巴爾巴略

埃爾德·巴爾巴略

$2,408,918 交易量

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$3,972,093 交易量

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and AtlasIntel show a tight race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 first round, with technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios. Flávio, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, has narrowed gaps in recent surveys while maintaining strong support among right-leaning voters. Lula’s campaign emphasizes social programs amid mixed approval ratings, and smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos register in low single digits. Traders assign Flávio the leading implied probability amid the polarized contest and limited time before voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$151,136,983
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from Datafolha and AtlasIntel show a tight race between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 first round, with technical ties in both first-round and runoff scenarios. Flávio, the Liberal Party nominee endorsed by his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, has narrowed gaps in recent surveys while maintaining strong support among right-leaning voters. Lula’s campaign emphasizes social programs amid mixed approval ratings, and smaller candidates such as Augusto Cury and Renan Santos register in low single digits. Traders assign Flávio the leading implied probability amid the polarized contest and limited time before voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$151,136,983
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

相關

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魯拉是否會在2026年巴西總統大選首輪投票中獲得最多票數？

77%
是
icon for 弗拉維奧·波索納羅會在2026年巴西總統大選首輪中獲得第二名嗎？

弗拉維奧·波索納羅會在2026年巴西總統大選首輪中獲得第二名嗎？

77%
是
icon for 雷南·桑托斯會在2026年巴西總統選舉第一輪中獲得第三名嗎？

雷南·桑托斯會在2026年巴西總統選舉第一輪中獲得第三名嗎？

54%
是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"巴西總統選舉" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "弗拉維奧·博索納羅" at 55%, followed by "路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦" at 43%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 55¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "巴西總統選舉" has generated $151.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "巴西總統選舉," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "巴西總統選舉" is "弗拉維奧·博索納羅" at 55%, meaning the market assigns a 55% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "路易斯·伊納西奧·盧拉·達席爾瓦" at 43%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "巴西總統選舉" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.