Trader consensus prices Fidesz-KDNP at 65.5% implied probability for second-most seats in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting independent polls like Medián (March 17–20: TISZA 58%, Fidesz 35%) and Republikon (March 23–26: TISZA 49%, Fidesz 40%) showing TISZA's widening lead amid Péter Magyar's surging campaign. Government-aligned surveys such as Nézőpont (March 16–17: Fidesz 46%, TISZA 40%) maintain a narrower Fidesz edge, but traders weigh the mixed-member majoritarian system—106 first-past-the-post districts favoring Fidesz incumbency—against TISZA momentum from recent scandals and unified opposition consolidation. Fragmented smaller parties like Mi Hazánk (4–8%) and DK pose no top-two threat, with the race tightening two weeks out.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Fidesz-KDNP 66%
TISZA 33%
MSZP <1%
Mi Hazánk <1%
$57,995 交易量
$57,995 交易量
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
66%
TISZA
33%
MSZP
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
DK
<1%
Momentum
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
LMP
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 66%
TISZA 33%
MSZP <1%
Mi Hazánk <1%
$57,995 交易量
$57,995 交易量
Apr 12, 2026
Fidesz-KDNP
$11,832 交易量
66%
TISZA
$8,968 交易量
33%
MSZP
$10,558 交易量
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$24,538 交易量
<1%
Jobbik
$2,100 交易量
<1%
DK
$0 交易量
<1%
Momentum
$0 交易量
<1%
Párbeszéd
$0 交易量
<1%
LMP
$0 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Trader consensus prices Fidesz-KDNP at 65.5% implied probability for second-most seats in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting independent polls like Medián (March 17–20: TISZA 58%, Fidesz 35%) and Republikon (March 23–26: TISZA 49%, Fidesz 40%) showing TISZA's widening lead amid Péter Magyar's surging campaign. Government-aligned surveys such as Nézőpont (March 16–17: Fidesz 46%, TISZA 40%) maintain a narrower Fidesz edge, but traders weigh the mixed-member majoritarian system—106 first-past-the-post districts favoring Fidesz incumbency—against TISZA momentum from recent scandals and unified opposition consolidation. Fragmented smaller parties like Mi Hazánk (4–8%) and DK pose no top-two threat, with the race tightening two weeks out.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
市場開放時間： Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
交易量
$57,995結束日期
Apr 12, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Trader consensus prices Fidesz-KDNP at 65.5% implied probability for second-most seats in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting independent polls like Medián (March 17–20: TISZA 58%, Fidesz 35%) and Republikon (March 23–26: TISZA 49%, Fidesz 40%) showing TISZA's widening lead amid Péter Magyar's surging campaign. Government-aligned surveys such as Nézőpont (March 16–17: Fidesz 46%, TISZA 40%) maintain a narrower Fidesz edge, but traders weigh the mixed-member majoritarian system—106 first-past-the-post districts favoring Fidesz incumbency—against TISZA momentum from recent scandals and unified opposition consolidation. Fragmented smaller parties like Mi Hazánk (4–8%) and DK pose no top-two threat, with the race tightening two weeks out.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
交易量
$57,995結束日期
Apr 12, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices Fidesz-KDNP at 65.5% implied probability for second-most seats in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election, reflecting independent polls like Medián (March 17–20: TISZA 58%, Fidesz 35%) and Republikon (March 23–26: TISZA 49%, Fidesz 40%) showing TISZA's widening lead amid Péter Magyar's surging campaign. Government-aligned surveys such as Nézőpont (March 16–17: Fidesz 46%, TISZA 40%) maintain a narrower Fidesz edge, but traders weigh the mixed-member majoritarian system—106 first-past-the-post districts favoring Fidesz incumbency—against TISZA momentum from recent scandals and unified opposition consolidation. Fragmented smaller parties like Mi Hazánk (4–8%) and DK pose no top-two threat, with the race tightening two weeks out.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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