**The Iceland EU referendum on resuming accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, features a narrow contest reflected in recent polls (51.3% yes vs. 48.7% no in the latest Maskína survey), which has narrowed from earlier leads and drives expectations of solid but variable voter participation.** High historical turnout in Icelandic parliamentary elections (around 80%) and prior referendums sets a baseline, while the single-issue vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, and economic ties amid geopolitical pressures—including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns—encourages mobilization on both sides. Early voting since late July and the closely divided electorate suggest turnout could hinge on last-minute engagement and regional differences (stronger yes support in the capital), with traders assigning roughly equal probability to mid-60s, mid-70s, and 85%+ brackets due to uncertainty over summer timing and issue salience. A decisive result on either side of the yes/no question would further underscore how participation levels shape the outcome in this tight race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於70–75% 38%
45–50% 27%
55–60% 27%
80–85% 27%
最新
最新
2026-08-29
低於45%
25%
45–50%
27%
50–55%
24%
55–60%
27%
60–65%
25%
65–70%
25%
70–75%
38%
75–80%
24%
80–85%
27%
85%以上
27%
70–75% 38%
45–50% 27%
55–60% 27%
80–85% 27%
最新
最新
2026-08-29
低於45%
$0 交易量
25%
45–50%
$0 交易量
27%
50–55%
$0 交易量
24%
55–60%
$0 交易量
27%
60–65%
$0 交易量
25%
65–70%
$0 交易量
25%
70–75%
$0 交易量
38%
75–80%
$0 交易量
24%
80–85%
$0 交易量
27%
85%以上
$0 交易量
27%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**The Iceland EU referendum on resuming accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, features a narrow contest reflected in recent polls (51.3% yes vs. 48.7% no in the latest Maskína survey), which has narrowed from earlier leads and drives expectations of solid but variable voter participation.** High historical turnout in Icelandic parliamentary elections (around 80%) and prior referendums sets a baseline, while the single-issue vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, and economic ties amid geopolitical pressures—including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns—encourages mobilization on both sides. Early voting since late July and the closely divided electorate suggest turnout could hinge on last-minute engagement and regional differences (stronger yes support in the capital), with traders assigning roughly equal probability to mid-60s, mid-70s, and 85%+ brackets due to uncertainty over summer timing and issue salience. A decisive result on either side of the yes/no question would further underscore how participation levels shape the outcome in this tight race.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
市場開放時間： Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**The Iceland EU referendum on resuming accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, features a narrow contest reflected in recent polls (51.3% yes vs. 48.7% no in the latest Maskína survey), which has narrowed from earlier leads and drives expectations of solid but variable voter participation.** High historical turnout in Icelandic parliamentary elections (around 80%) and prior referendums sets a baseline, while the single-issue vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, and economic ties amid geopolitical pressures—including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns—encourages mobilization on both sides. Early voting since late July and the closely divided electorate suggest turnout could hinge on last-minute engagement and regional differences (stronger yes support in the capital), with traders assigning roughly equal probability to mid-60s, mid-70s, and 85%+ brackets due to uncertainty over summer timing and issue salience. A decisive result on either side of the yes/no question would further underscore how participation levels shape the outcome in this tight race.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-08-29市場開放時間
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The Iceland EU referendum on resuming accession negotiations, scheduled for 29 August 2026, features a narrow contest reflected in recent polls (51.3% yes vs. 48.7% no in the latest Maskína survey), which has narrowed from earlier leads and drives expectations of solid but variable voter participation.** High historical turnout in Icelandic parliamentary elections (around 80%) and prior referendums sets a baseline, while the single-issue vote on sovereignty, fisheries policy, and economic ties amid geopolitical pressures—including U.S. tariffs and regional security concerns—encourages mobilization on both sides. Early voting since late July and the closely divided electorate suggest turnout could hinge on last-minute engagement and regional differences (stronger yes support in the capital), with traders assigning roughly equal probability to mid-60s, mid-70s, and 85%+ brackets due to uncertainty over summer timing and issue salience. A decisive result on either side of the yes/no question would further underscore how participation levels shape the outcome in this tight race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions