Traders assign a 90.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the cartel’s demonstrated resilience amid the United Arab Emirates’ May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have maintained coordinated production adjustments, as evidenced by the group’s May 3 virtual meeting that reaffirmed voluntary cuts and outlined an additional 188,000 barrels-per-day output increase for June. This continuity underscores stable quota discipline and shared interest in managing global oil supply amid the Iran conflict’s disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. While further member departures or escalated regional tensions could introduce volatility and erode cohesion, historical precedent and ongoing institutional mechanisms make outright dissolution before year-end highly improbable under current market dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$16,966 交易量
$16,966 交易量
2026-12-31
$16,966 交易量
$16,966 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 90.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the cartel’s demonstrated resilience amid the United Arab Emirates’ May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have maintained coordinated production adjustments, as evidenced by the group’s May 3 virtual meeting that reaffirmed voluntary cuts and outlined an additional 188,000 barrels-per-day output increase for June. This continuity underscores stable quota discipline and shared interest in managing global oil supply amid the Iran conflict’s disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. While further member departures or escalated regional tensions could introduce volatility and erode cohesion, historical precedent and ongoing institutional mechanisms make outright dissolution before year-end highly improbable under current market dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$16,966結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign a 90.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the cartel’s demonstrated resilience amid the United Arab Emirates’ May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have maintained coordinated production adjustments, as evidenced by the group’s May 3 virtual meeting that reaffirmed voluntary cuts and outlined an additional 188,000 barrels-per-day output increase for June. This continuity underscores stable quota discipline and shared interest in managing global oil supply amid the Iran conflict’s disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. While further member departures or escalated regional tensions could introduce volatility and erode cohesion, historical precedent and ongoing institutional mechanisms make outright dissolution before year-end highly improbable under current market dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$16,966結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 90.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026, reflecting the cartel’s demonstrated resilience amid the United Arab Emirates’ May 1 exit from both OPEC and OPEC+. Core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq have maintained coordinated production adjustments, as evidenced by the group’s May 3 virtual meeting that reaffirmed voluntary cuts and outlined an additional 188,000 barrels-per-day output increase for June. This continuity underscores stable quota discipline and shared interest in managing global oil supply amid the Iran conflict’s disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz. While further member departures or escalated regional tensions could introduce volatility and erode cohesion, historical precedent and ongoing institutional mechanisms make outright dissolution before year-end highly improbable under current market dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions