OPEC maintains strong institutional continuity into September 2026 despite the UAE's May exit and earlier departures by Angola and others, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait actively coordinating production quotas through OPEC+ ministerial meetings. Recent decisions, such as the phased rollback of voluntary cuts completed in September and plans for 2027 capacity-based quotas, reflect ongoing commitment to market management amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict. Traders assign only a 3.1% chance of dissolution because the organization's framework delivers mutual benefits in output discipline and price influence, with no formal dissolution proposals or cascading exits materializing. Further large-scale withdrawals or breakdowns in consensus could still shift odds, though current diplomatic and economic incentives favor continuation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$34,759 交易量
$34,759 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 機率
$34,759 交易量
$34,759 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains strong institutional continuity into September 2026 despite the UAE's May exit and earlier departures by Angola and others, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait actively coordinating production quotas through OPEC+ ministerial meetings. Recent decisions, such as the phased rollback of voluntary cuts completed in September and plans for 2027 capacity-based quotas, reflect ongoing commitment to market management amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict. Traders assign only a 3.1% chance of dissolution because the organization's framework delivers mutual benefits in output discipline and price influence, with no formal dissolution proposals or cascading exits materializing. Further large-scale withdrawals or breakdowns in consensus could still shift odds, though current diplomatic and economic incentives favor continuation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$34,759結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC maintains strong institutional continuity into September 2026 despite the UAE's May exit and earlier departures by Angola and others, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait actively coordinating production quotas through OPEC+ ministerial meetings. Recent decisions, such as the phased rollback of voluntary cuts completed in September and plans for 2027 capacity-based quotas, reflect ongoing commitment to market management amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict. Traders assign only a 3.1% chance of dissolution because the organization's framework delivers mutual benefits in output discipline and price influence, with no formal dissolution proposals or cascading exits materializing. Further large-scale withdrawals or breakdowns in consensus could still shift odds, though current diplomatic and economic incentives favor continuation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$34,759結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETOPEC maintains strong institutional continuity into September 2026 despite the UAE's May exit and earlier departures by Angola and others, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait actively coordinating production quotas through OPEC+ ministerial meetings. Recent decisions, such as the phased rollback of voluntary cuts completed in September and plans for 2027 capacity-based quotas, reflect ongoing commitment to market management amid geopolitical disruptions from the Iran conflict. Traders assign only a 3.1% chance of dissolution because the organization's framework delivers mutual benefits in output discipline and price influence, with no formal dissolution proposals or cascading exits materializing. Further large-scale withdrawals or breakdowns in consensus could still shift odds, though current diplomatic and economic incentives favor continuation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions