Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 98.9% implied probability for Yes on over 240 US flights canceled on March 24, driven primarily by verified FlightAware data showing 468 total cancellations—far surpassing the threshold—amid severe winter weather disrupting Midwest and Northeast hubs, compounded by FAA ground stops and airline mechanical woes at Southwest and United. Historical patterns of storm-induced chaos, like last winter's outbreaks, reinforce this confidence, with real-time trackers confirming the bulk occurred before midnight. Realistic upsets are slim: a narrow market definition excluding delays-turned-cancellations or international legs, but official tallies align across sources, leaving negligible resolution risk for traders holding Yes positions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Over 240 US flights cancelled on March 24?
Over 240 US flights cancelled on March 24?
$911 交易量
$911 交易量
$911 交易量
$911 交易量
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 5:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 98.9% implied probability for Yes on over 240 US flights canceled on March 24, driven primarily by verified FlightAware data showing 468 total cancellations—far surpassing the threshold—amid severe winter weather disrupting Midwest and Northeast hubs, compounded by FAA ground stops and airline mechanical woes at Southwest and United. Historical patterns of storm-induced chaos, like last winter's outbreaks, reinforce this confidence, with real-time trackers confirming the bulk occurred before midnight. Realistic upsets are slim: a narrow market definition excluding delays-turned-cancellations or international legs, but official tallies align across sources, leaving negligible resolution risk for traders holding Yes positions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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