Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 44% probability for under 40mm total precipitation in Seoul for April 2026, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations of exceptionally dry conditions through mid-month, with recent one-month accumulations below climatological norms amid persistent high-pressure systems and low humidity. Historical April averages hover around 65mm, typically from scattered spring showers during cherry blossom season, but this year's subdued moisture influx—evident in minimal daily rainfall reports and Asian dust episodes—has kept totals low so far. Ensemble forecasts from KMA short-range models show limited precipitation probability (under 30%) for the remaining days, though sudden low-pressure developments could boost totals toward 65-70mm (15% implied odds); daily KMA updates through April 30 will refine trader positioning ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4月份首爾降水量?
4月份首爾降水量?
少於40毫米 59%
65-70毫米 16%
45-50毫米 7.8%
55-60毫米 8%
$16,660 交易量
$16,660 交易量
少於40毫米
44%
40-45毫米
12%
45-50毫米
8%
50-55毫米
10%
55-60毫米
8%
60-65毫米
5%
65-70毫米
16%
70-75毫米
2%
75毫米以上
9%
少於40毫米 59%
65-70毫米 16%
45-50毫米 7.8%
55-60毫米 8%
$16,660 交易量
$16,660 交易量
少於40毫米
44%
40-45毫米
12%
45-50毫米
8%
50-55毫米
10%
55-60毫米
8%
60-65毫米
5%
65-70毫米
16%
70-75毫米
2%
75毫米以上
9%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Korea Meteorological Administration, specifically the figure for monthly precipitation in mm when the classification is set for "ground", the region/branch is set for "Seoul", the element is set for "precipitation", and the period is set for the month of April at the https://data.kma.go.kr/climate/RankState/selectRankStatisticsDivisionList.do link once the figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 44% probability for under 40mm total precipitation in Seoul for April 2026, reflecting Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) observations of exceptionally dry conditions through mid-month, with recent one-month accumulations below climatological norms amid persistent high-pressure systems and low humidity. Historical April averages hover around 65mm, typically from scattered spring showers during cherry blossom season, but this year's subdued moisture influx—evident in minimal daily rainfall reports and Asian dust episodes—has kept totals low so far. Ensemble forecasts from KMA short-range models show limited precipitation probability (under 30%) for the remaining days, though sudden low-pressure developments could boost totals toward 65-70mm (15% implied odds); daily KMA updates through April 30 will refine trader positioning ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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