The Supreme Court’s June 2026 grant of certiorari in consolidated challenges to Illinois and Connecticut assault-weapons bans has become the dominant driver of trader sentiment, placing AR-15 restrictions squarely before the justices for the first time. A conservative majority has repeatedly signaled openness to Second Amendment claims involving commonly owned semiautomatic rifles, yet the “common use” inquiry under Heller and Bruen remains open to interpretation, with Justice Kavanaugh viewed as a potential swing vote. Recent lower-court splits—including a July 2026 federal appeals decision striking down New Jersey’s ban while upholding similar Illinois restrictions—underscore the legal uncertainty. Oral arguments expected this fall, combined with the Court’s 6-3 composition and historical precedent for incremental gun-rights expansions, create the narrow 54.5% edge for invalidation while leaving room for either outcome depending on how the justices apply historical analogues and public-safety considerations.