Incumbent Janet Gatehouse leads trader consensus for the Sorell mayoral election at 68.5% implied probability, reflecting her 2024 by-election victory and ongoing council role ahead of the October 27, 2026 Tasmanian local government vote. A large field of candidates, with nominations closing September 21, has produced fragmented pricing, leaving most contenders at 50% while Kristian Horvath sits at 18.5% and Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux at 5.5%. The preferential voting system, limited recent polling, and absence of major campaign developments or dominant local issues keep probabilities fluid. Late nominations, preference flows, and community priorities around infrastructure and planning could still shift outcomes before postal ballots close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於索雷爾市長選舉贏家
索雷爾市長選舉贏家
Janet Gatehouse 67%
Kristian Horvath 19%
Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux 6%
最新
最新
2026-10-27
Janet Gatehouse
68%
Kristian Horvath
19%
Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux
6%
Janet Gatehouse 67%
Kristian Horvath 19%
Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux 6%
最新
最新
2026-10-27
Janet Gatehouse
$4,036 交易量
68%
Kristian Horvath
$1,521 交易量
19%
Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux
$286 交易量
6%
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).Incumbent Janet Gatehouse leads trader consensus for the Sorell mayoral election at 68.5% implied probability, reflecting her 2024 by-election victory and ongoing council role ahead of the October 27, 2026 Tasmanian local government vote. A large field of candidates, with nominations closing September 21, has produced fragmented pricing, leaving most contenders at 50% while Kristian Horvath sits at 18.5% and Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux at 5.5%. The preferential voting system, limited recent polling, and absence of major campaign developments or dominant local issues keep probabilities fluid. Late nominations, preference flows, and community priorities around infrastructure and planning could still shift outcomes before postal ballots close.
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
市場開放時間： Sep 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
交易量
$5,843結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETLocal government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).Incumbent Janet Gatehouse leads trader consensus for the Sorell mayoral election at 68.5% implied probability, reflecting her 2024 by-election victory and ongoing council role ahead of the October 27, 2026 Tasmanian local government vote. A large field of candidates, with nominations closing September 21, has produced fragmented pricing, leaving most contenders at 50% while Kristian Horvath sits at 18.5% and Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux at 5.5%. The preferential voting system, limited recent polling, and absence of major campaign developments or dominant local issues keep probabilities fluid. Late nominations, preference flows, and community priorities around infrastructure and planning could still shift outcomes before postal ballots close.
Local government elections are scheduled to be held across Tasmania on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of the Sorell Council area as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as declared by the Tasmanian Electoral Commission (https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/).
交易量
$5,843結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Sep 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ETIncumbent Janet Gatehouse leads trader consensus for the Sorell mayoral election at 68.5% implied probability, reflecting her 2024 by-election victory and ongoing council role ahead of the October 27, 2026 Tasmanian local government vote. A large field of candidates, with nominations closing September 21, has produced fragmented pricing, leaving most contenders at 50% while Kristian Horvath sits at 18.5% and Marisol Miro Quesada Le Roux at 5.5%. The preferential voting system, limited recent polling, and absence of major campaign developments or dominant local issues keep probabilities fluid. Late nominations, preference flows, and community priorities around infrastructure and planning could still shift outcomes before postal ballots close.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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