Lithuania holds a narrow edge in the Group D2 title race at the 2026–27 UEFA Nations League due to its stronger recent international record and higher seeding from the prior cycle. Azerbaijan follows closely behind, bolstered by home advantage in key fixtures and comparable squad depth among these lower-ranked UEFA sides. Liechtenstein trails as the clear underdog, limited by limited resources and historical results against the group leaders. With all three teams starting at zero points ahead of the September 24 kickoff, the round-robin format—featuring home-and-away matches through November—amplifies the impact of home form, set-piece execution, and squad rotation in low-scoring encounters typical of League D. Trader consensus reflects this parity, where small margins in individual results could shift promotion outcomes.