Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Ankara on May 3?
Highest temperature in Ankara on May 3?
9°C or higher 100.0%
-1°C or below <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$64,791 交易量
$64,791 交易量
2026-05-03
-1°C or below
No
0°C
No
1°C
No
2°C
No
3°C
No
4°C
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C or higher
Yes
9°C or higher 100.0%
-1°C or below <1%
0°C <1%
1°C <1%
$64,791 交易量
$64,791 交易量
2026-05-03
-1°C or below
$1,940 交易量
No
0°C
$881 交易量
No
1°C
$2,406 交易量
No
2°C
$1,323 交易量
No
3°C
$1,615 交易量
No
4°C
$2,560 交易量
No
5°C
$4,621 交易量
No
6°C
$6,741 交易量
No
7°C
$10,081 交易量
No
8°C
$16,208 交易量
No
9°C or higher
$16,415 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$64,791结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$64,791结束日期
2026-05-03市场开放时间
May 1, 2026, 12:08 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 9°C or higher in Ankara on May 3 at Esenboğa International Airport station (100% implied probability), driven by the latest Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) hourly observations and ECMWF/GFS ensemble forecasts projecting daytime peaks of 10–12°C amid a rare early-May cold snap. Northerly cold advection from an omega blocking pattern over Europe has suppressed morning lows to 4–5°C under stratus clouds and light showers, but midday readings near 8°C under easing winds and partial clearing signal boundary-layer warming and reduced cloud-induced solar insolation limits. Historical May averages exceed 20°C, underscoring this anomaly; realistic challenges include intensified showers capping peaks below 9°C, with final resolution pending evening MGM reports.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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