National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport project a high temperature of 65–72°F on May 4, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability for 48°F or higher, as seasonably mild conditions prevail amid southerly winds and an upper-level ridge fostering robust diurnal heating. Recent observations show May 1–3 highs climbing from 46°F to near 60°F after an unseasonably cool start, with model consensus from GFS and NAM ensembles confirming low frost risk and ample sunshine. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with NOAA guidance, though a rare northward surge of cool Canadian air could theoretically cap highs below 48°F if steering currents shift unexpectedly—unlikely per current synoptic patterns. Hourly updates from O'Hare observations will refine resolution by day's end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Chicago on May 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on May 4?
48°F or higher 100.0%
29°F or below <1%
30-31°F <1%
32-33°F <1%
$65,235 交易量
$65,235 交易量
2026-05-04
29°F or below
No
30-31°F
No
32-33°F
No
34-35°F
No
36-37°F
No
38-39°F
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48°F or higher
Yes
48°F or higher 100.0%
29°F or below <1%
30-31°F <1%
32-33°F <1%
$65,235 交易量
$65,235 交易量
2026-05-04
29°F or below
$6,491 交易量
No
30-31°F
$1,327 交易量
No
32-33°F
$1,327 交易量
No
34-35°F
$2,402 交易量
No
36-37°F
$3,270 交易量
No
38-39°F
$3,329 交易量
No
40-41°F
$3,024 交易量
No
42-43°F
$2,057 交易量
No
44-45°F
$1,508 交易量
No
46-47°F
$15,383 交易量
No
48°F or higher
$25,120 交易量
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport project a high temperature of 65–72°F on May 4, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability for 48°F or higher, as seasonably mild conditions prevail amid southerly winds and an upper-level ridge fostering robust diurnal heating. Recent observations show May 1–3 highs climbing from 46°F to near 60°F after an unseasonably cool start, with model consensus from GFS and NAM ensembles confirming low frost risk and ample sunshine. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with NOAA guidance, though a rare northward surge of cool Canadian air could theoretically cap highs below 48°F if steering currents shift unexpectedly—unlikely per current synoptic patterns. Hourly updates from O'Hare observations will refine resolution by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
交易量
$65,235结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport project a high temperature of 65–72°F on May 4, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability for 48°F or higher, as seasonably mild conditions prevail amid southerly winds and an upper-level ridge fostering robust diurnal heating. Recent observations show May 1–3 highs climbing from 46°F to near 60°F after an unseasonably cool start, with model consensus from GFS and NAM ensembles confirming low frost risk and ample sunshine. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with NOAA guidance, though a rare northward surge of cool Canadian air could theoretically cap highs below 48°F if steering currents shift unexpectedly—unlikely per current synoptic patterns. Hourly updates from O'Hare observations will refine resolution by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$65,235结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
May 2, 2026, 12:10 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago O'Hare International Airport project a high temperature of 65–72°F on May 4, 2026, driving the market's 100% implied probability for 48°F or higher, as seasonably mild conditions prevail amid southerly winds and an upper-level ridge fostering robust diurnal heating. Recent observations show May 1–3 highs climbing from 46°F to near 60°F after an unseasonably cool start, with model consensus from GFS and NAM ensembles confirming low frost risk and ample sunshine. Trader sentiment reflects this skin-in-the-game alignment with NOAA guidance, though a rare northward surge of cool Canadian air could theoretically cap highs below 48°F if steering currents shift unexpectedly—unlikely per current synoptic patterns. Hourly updates from O'Hare observations will refine resolution by day's end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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