Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月8日马德里气温最高？
7月8日马德里气温最高？
39°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$129,322 交易量
$129,322 交易量
2026-07-08
36°C or below
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
Yes
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C or higher
No
39°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$129,322 交易量
$129,322 交易量
2026-07-08
36°C or below
$4,506 交易量
No
37°C
$6,333 交易量
No
38°C
$34,328 交易量
No
39°C
$23,938 交易量
Yes
40°C
$35,977 交易量
No
41°C
$9,943 交易量
No
42°C
$5,434 交易量
No
43°C
$3,008 交易量
No
44°C
$1,747 交易量
No
45°C
$2,017 交易量
No
46°C or higher
$2,090 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$129,322结束日期
2026-07-08市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$129,322结束日期
2026-07-08市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 12:03 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Recent model consensus from AEMET and ECMWF places Madrid’s July 8 maximum near 39–40 °C amid a persistent heat dome over central Spain, with limited cloud cover and weak winds favoring daytime heating. The 2026 summer’s record warmth—1.6 °C above average through June—has sustained elevated baseline temperatures, while ensemble spreads of roughly ±1–2 °C keep 39 °C and 40 °C brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Official warnings highlight the 38–41 °C window as most probable, with slight upside risk if subsidence strengthens further before the July 8 verification window closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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