Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains exceptionally close due to near-even polling splits, with the latest Gallup and Maskína surveys showing results within the margin of error and slight recent shifts toward "No." Key factors include competing priorities over fisheries sovereignty, the Icelandic krona's volatility and cost of living pressures, and broader security considerations tied to regional instability. High early voting turnout and the advisory nature of the vote—distinct from any future membership decision—have kept probabilities balanced. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates a narrow final margin, with separation likely hinging on turnout patterns, constituency-level results, and any late swings in undecided voters before polls close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于否 <3% 42%
否 12-15% 34%
同意 <3% 24%
赞成3-6% 18%
最新
最新
2026-08-29
是 15%+
4%
赞成 12–15%
9%
赞成9-12%
1%
是方 6–9%
12%
赞成3-6%
18%
同意 <3%
24%
否 <3%
54%
反对 3–6%
2%
否 6–9%
15%
否 9–12%
18%
否 12-15%
34%
反对方15%+
17%
否 <3% 42%
否 12-15% 34%
同意 <3% 24%
赞成3-6% 18%
最新
最新
2026-08-29
是 15%+
$108 交易量
4%
赞成 12–15%
$146 交易量
9%
赞成9-12%
$21 交易量
1%
是方 6–9%
$11 交易量
12%
赞成3-6%
$47 交易量
18%
同意 <3%
$44 交易量
24%
否 <3%
$43 交易量
54%
反对 3–6%
$24 交易量
2%
否 6–9%
$24 交易量
15%
否 9–12%
$22 交易量
18%
否 12-15%
$86 交易量
34%
反对方15%+
$16 交易量
17%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains exceptionally close due to near-even polling splits, with the latest Gallup and Maskína surveys showing results within the margin of error and slight recent shifts toward "No." Key factors include competing priorities over fisheries sovereignty, the Icelandic krona's volatility and cost of living pressures, and broader security considerations tied to regional instability. High early voting turnout and the advisory nature of the vote—distinct from any future membership decision—have kept probabilities balanced. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates a narrow final margin, with separation likely hinging on turnout patterns, constituency-level results, and any late swings in undecided voters before polls close.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
市场开放时间： Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
交易量
$593结束日期
2026-08-29市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETThe Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains exceptionally close due to near-even polling splits, with the latest Gallup and Maskína surveys showing results within the margin of error and slight recent shifts toward "No." Key factors include competing priorities over fisheries sovereignty, the Icelandic krona's volatility and cost of living pressures, and broader security considerations tied to regional instability. High early voting turnout and the advisory nature of the vote—distinct from any future membership decision—have kept probabilities balanced. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates a narrow final margin, with separation likely hinging on turnout patterns, constituency-level results, and any late swings in undecided voters before polls close.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
交易量
$593结束日期
2026-08-29市场开放时间
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETIceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains exceptionally close due to near-even polling splits, with the latest Gallup and Maskína surveys showing results within the margin of error and slight recent shifts toward "No." Key factors include competing priorities over fisheries sovereignty, the Icelandic krona's volatility and cost of living pressures, and broader security considerations tied to regional instability. High early voting turnout and the advisory nature of the vote—distinct from any future membership decision—have kept probabilities balanced. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing anticipates a narrow final margin, with separation likely hinging on turnout patterns, constituency-level results, and any late swings in undecided voters before polls close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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