Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed several senior regime figures. An interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian has operated in parallel, but Mojtaba's appointment consolidated power among hardline clerics and IRGC elements to preserve continuity amid active conflict. Trader odds reflect low near-term change probability due to this stabilization, decrees appointing loyalists to key posts, and official affirmations of his authority through written statements and reported meetings as recently as late July. Persistent questions over his public absence, reported injuries, and effective decision-making capacity introduce longer-term uncertainty, alongside ceasefire negotiations, sanctions pressure, and potential internal elite frictions that could influence succession dynamics by mid-2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,019,961 交易量
2026-09-30
9月30日
3%
10月31日
6%
11月30日
9%
12月31日
15%
2027年6月30日
25%
$25,019,961 交易量
9月30日
$996,910 交易量
3%
10月31日
$69,428 交易量
6%
11月30日
$35,300 交易量
9%
12月31日
$4,370,796 交易量
15%
2027年6月30日
$260,390 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed several senior regime figures. An interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian has operated in parallel, but Mojtaba's appointment consolidated power among hardline clerics and IRGC elements to preserve continuity amid active conflict. Trader odds reflect low near-term change probability due to this stabilization, decrees appointing loyalists to key posts, and official affirmations of his authority through written statements and reported meetings as recently as late July. Persistent questions over his public absence, reported injuries, and effective decision-making capacity introduce longer-term uncertainty, alongside ceasefire negotiations, sanctions pressure, and potential internal elite frictions that could influence succession dynamics by mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
交易量
$25,019,961结束日期
2027-07-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed several senior regime figures. An interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian has operated in parallel, but Mojtaba's appointment consolidated power among hardline clerics and IRGC elements to preserve continuity amid active conflict. Trader odds reflect low near-term change probability due to this stabilization, decrees appointing loyalists to key posts, and official affirmations of his authority through written statements and reported meetings as recently as late July. Persistent questions over his public absence, reported injuries, and effective decision-making capacity introduce longer-term uncertainty, alongside ceasefire negotiations, sanctions pressure, and potential internal elite frictions that could influence succession dynamics by mid-2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$25,019,961结束日期
2027-07-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETMojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during U.S.-Israeli strikes that also killed several senior regime figures. An interim council including President Masoud Pezeshkian has operated in parallel, but Mojtaba's appointment consolidated power among hardline clerics and IRGC elements to preserve continuity amid active conflict. Trader odds reflect low near-term change probability due to this stabilization, decrees appointing loyalists to key posts, and official affirmations of his authority through written statements and reported meetings as recently as late July. Persistent questions over his public absence, reported injuries, and effective decision-making capacity introduce longer-term uncertainty, alongside ceasefire negotiations, sanctions pressure, and potential internal elite frictions that could influence succession dynamics by mid-2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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