Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability that CarMax (KMX) will miss Q4 FY2026 earnings consensus of $0.22 per share and $5.66 billion in revenue, reflecting persistent headwinds in the used vehicle sector. Key drivers include the company's mid-Q3 strategy shift to lower retail used unit margins and ramp up marketing spend to boost volumes amid softening demand, which compressed gross profit per unit to $2,235 in Q3 despite a +36% earnings surprise on depressed expectations. Elevated auto loan rates—averaging 9.98% for good credit—continue curbing affordability, with prior quarters showing 5-8% retail unit declines and Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index gains of just 0.5% in mid-March failing to ignite sales. Upcoming April 14 report looms as pivotal, with FY2026 EPS growth projected at -17%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
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2026-04-14
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2026-04-14
As of market creation, Carmax is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carmax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability that CarMax (KMX) will miss Q4 FY2026 earnings consensus of $0.22 per share and $5.66 billion in revenue, reflecting persistent headwinds in the used vehicle sector. Key drivers include the company's mid-Q3 strategy shift to lower retail used unit margins and ramp up marketing spend to boost volumes amid softening demand, which compressed gross profit per unit to $2,235 in Q3 despite a +36% earnings surprise on depressed expectations. Elevated auto loan rates—averaging 9.98% for good credit—continue curbing affordability, with prior quarters showing 5-8% retail unit declines and Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index gains of just 0.5% in mid-March failing to ignite sales. Upcoming April 14 report looms as pivotal, with FY2026 EPS growth projected at -17%.
As of market creation, Carmax is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carmax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
市场开放时间： Mar 30, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$77结束日期
2026-04-14市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...As of market creation, Carmax is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carmax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability that CarMax (KMX) will miss Q4 FY2026 earnings consensus of $0.22 per share and $5.66 billion in revenue, reflecting persistent headwinds in the used vehicle sector. Key drivers include the company's mid-Q3 strategy shift to lower retail used unit margins and ramp up marketing spend to boost volumes amid softening demand, which compressed gross profit per unit to $2,235 in Q3 despite a +36% earnings surprise on depressed expectations. Elevated auto loan rates—averaging 9.98% for good credit—continue curbing affordability, with prior quarters showing 5-8% retail unit declines and Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index gains of just 0.5% in mid-March failing to ignite sales. Upcoming April 14 report looms as pivotal, with FY2026 EPS growth projected at -17%.
As of market creation, Carmax is estimated to release earnings on April 14, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Carmax's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.22 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Carmax reports GAAP EPS greater than $0.22 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
If Carmax releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.
If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.”
Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.
交易量
$77结束日期
2026-04-14市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 67% implied probability that CarMax (KMX) will miss Q4 FY2026 earnings consensus of $0.22 per share and $5.66 billion in revenue, reflecting persistent headwinds in the used vehicle sector. Key drivers include the company's mid-Q3 strategy shift to lower retail used unit margins and ramp up marketing spend to boost volumes amid softening demand, which compressed gross profit per unit to $2,235 in Q3 despite a +36% earnings surprise on depressed expectations. Elevated auto loan rates—averaging 9.98% for good credit—continue curbing affordability, with prior quarters showing 5-8% retail unit declines and Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index gains of just 0.5% in mid-March failing to ignite sales. Upcoming April 14 report looms as pivotal, with FY2026 EPS growth projected at -17%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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