Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$410-$420 100.0%
低于370美元 <1%
$370-$380 <1%
$380-$390 <1%
$2,430 交易量
$2,430 交易量
2026-05-01
低于370美元
否
$370-$380
否
$380-$390
否
$390-$400
否
$400-$410
否
$410-$420
是
$420-$430
否
$430-$440
否
$440-$450
否
$450-$460
否
>460美元
否
$410-$420 100.0%
低于370美元 <1%
$370-$380 <1%
$380-$390 <1%
$2,430 交易量
$2,430 交易量
2026-05-01
低于370美元
$304 交易量
否
$370-$380
$68 交易量
否
$380-$390
$160 交易量
否
$390-$400
$160 交易量
否
$400-$410
$397 交易量
否
$410-$420
$295 交易量
是
$420-$430
$245 交易量
否
$430-$440
$321 交易量
否
$440-$450
$160 交易量
否
$450-$460
$160 交易量
否
>460美元
$160 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市场开放时间： Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
交易量
$2,430结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Microsoft (MSFT) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Microsoft (MSFT) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$2,430结束日期
2026-05-01市场开放时间
Apr 24, 2026, 6:06 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Microsoft (MSFT) shares closed the week of April 27 at $414.47 on May 1, locking in 100% market-implied probability for the $410-$420 bin as trader consensus reflects post-earnings stabilization amid high conviction on limited end-of-week volatility. Fiscal Q3 2026 results released April 30 beat estimates with $82.89 billion in revenue (up 18% year-over-year) and strong AI-driven growth at a $37 billion annualized run rate, but investor concerns over $190 billion in projected AI capex triggered a 5% intraday plunge to a $398 low before rebounding above $410. This recovery, supported by elevated trading volume of 70 million shares on April 30 tapering to 19 million on May 1, aligns with the 50-day moving average near $415; realistic challenges would require an improbable late-session reversal exceeding 2% amid thin liquidity, though none materialized.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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