**Jess Wilson leads the market at 64.5% as Leader of the Victorian Liberal Party and Opposition, positioning her as the frontrunner to become Premier if her party wins the 28 November 2026 state election.** Recent polling has shown Labor trailing after more than a decade in office, amid voter concerns over cost-of-living pressures, infrastructure delivery, and integrity issues in the construction sector. Ben Carroll assumed the Labor leadership and premiership on 28 July 2026 following Jacinta Allan's resignation in a caucus spill, immediately announcing a royal commission into alleged construction corruption and related reforms. Carroll sits at 19.5% while Allan and other Labor figures remain low single digits. The 50% listings for multiple individuals largely reflect unresolved scenarios across party tickets or independents ahead of nominations and final candidate confirmations. One Nation's polling strength adds uncertainty to preference flows and coalition dynamics.