Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs "No" at 99.3% implied probability for The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives Season 5 cancellation by April 15, driven by Hulu's prior renewal for 20 additional episodes in November 2025 and the absence of any official cancellation announcement despite a March 16 production pause amid verified domestic assault allegations involving star Taylor Frankie Paul. Recent cast updates from April 7-8, including stars like Chase McWhorter signaling readiness to resume filming after weeks of delay, have solidified momentum, reflecting Hulu's investment in the buzzy reality franchise's strong streaming metrics and cultural staying power. With just days until resolution, an upset would require an abrupt Hulu statement—potentially tied to unresolved cast drama—but historical patterns favor continuation for high-engagement shows like this.