Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for Keir Starmer's approval rating to rise in April, reflecting stabilization after hitting lows earlier in 2026. YouGov's March 23 poll shows his net favourability steady at -48, unchanged from February's post-leadership crisis recovery, despite a humiliating Labour third-place finish in the late February Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens. Public opinion remains split on Starmer's cautious response to the US-Iran conflict, with recent Opinium data noting a modest four-point uptick amid the crisis, potentially sustaining a "rally 'round the flag" effect. No major domestic catalysts loom before April polls, but ongoing de-escalation signals and absence of fresh scandals underpin expectations of slight improvement from entrenched negative territory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于上升
上升
This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point released for "all adults" who "think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister" is higher than 21%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the next respective data point released is lower than 21%.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the next respective data point released is exactly 21%, or if no new data point is published by April 30, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the approval tracker "How well is Keir Starmer doing as Prime Minister?" by YouGov (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). If the website is temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the specified source will be used for resolution, regardless of methodological changes or projections by other sources.
市场开放时间: Mar 27, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if the next data point released for "all adults" who "think that Keir Starmer is doing well as Prime Minister" is higher than 21%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the next respective data point released is lower than 21%.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if the next respective data point released is exactly 21%, or if no new data point is published by April 30, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying data point has been published.
This market will resolve solely based on the approval tracker "How well is Keir Starmer doing as Prime Minister?" by YouGov (https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/keir-starmer-prime-minister-approval). If the website is temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again.
Note: Only the specified source will be used for resolution, regardless of methodological changes or projections by other sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 58% implied probability for Keir Starmer's approval rating to rise in April, reflecting stabilization after hitting lows earlier in 2026. YouGov's March 23 poll shows his net favourability steady at -48, unchanged from February's post-leadership crisis recovery, despite a humiliating Labour third-place finish in the late February Gorton and Denton by-election to the Greens. Public opinion remains split on Starmer's cautious response to the US-Iran conflict, with recent Opinium data noting a modest four-point uptick amid the crisis, potentially sustaining a "rally 'round the flag" effect. No major domestic catalysts loom before April polls, but ongoing de-escalation signals and absence of fresh scandals underpin expectations of slight improvement from entrenched negative territory.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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