Trump's job approval has remained under 40% for much of 2026, with multiple polls recording lows near 32-33% in July and August amid the ongoing U.S. conflict with Iran. That military involvement, which began earlier in the year, has driven sharp rises in gasoline prices and broader inflation concerns, producing particularly weak ratings on the economy, cost of living, and foreign policy. Recent surveys through mid-September show modest rebounds to the mid- or high-30s range following Republican messaging events, though disapproval stays near or above 60%. Key variables that could push ratings lower include further escalation or prolonged effects from the Iran situation, November midterm results, and incoming economic data. Midterm conventions and any diplomatic developments in the region remain scheduled factors that traders monitor for shifts.