Traders assign a 96% probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of major military escalations or credible invasion signals in 2026. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and favors sustained coercion short of war, including diplomatic pressure and maritime activities, amid planned U.S.-China summits. PLA aircraft sorties around Taiwan have remained stable or declined, while Taiwan’s Han Kuang drills emphasize resilience without triggering acute crises. An amphibious operation of this scale requires extensive preparations that current conditions do not support. Unforeseen events such as a severe cross-strait incident or abrupt leadership decisions could still alter trajectories before year-end, though the compressed timeframe limits such possibilities.