US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI threat report, indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plan for invading Taiwan, favoring sustained coercive measures such as military drills, coast guard patrols east of the island, and economic pressure instead. These developments, alongside Taiwan's realistic Han Kuang defense exercises in August 2026 and assessments of high operational and economic costs for amphibious operations, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 96.2% probability for no invasion by year-end. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid leadership decisions, miscalculations during routine gray-zone activities, or unforeseen external triggers within the remaining months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$39,782,033 交易量
$39,782,033 交易量
是
$39,782,033 交易量
$39,782,033 交易量
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
US intelligence assessments, including the March 2026 ODNI threat report, indicate Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or current plan for invading Taiwan, favoring sustained coercive measures such as military drills, coast guard patrols east of the island, and economic pressure instead. These developments, alongside Taiwan's realistic Han Kuang defense exercises in August 2026 and assessments of high operational and economic costs for amphibious operations, underpin trader consensus reflected in the 96.2% probability for no invasion by year-end. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include rapid leadership decisions, miscalculations during routine gray-zone activities, or unforeseen external triggers within the remaining months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题