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icon for 中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?

中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?

icon for 中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?

中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?

14% 概率
Polymarket

$2,562,503 交易量

14% 概率
Polymarket

$2,562,503 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan maintains robust defensive preparations through expanded military drills like the upcoming Han Kuang exercises and asymmetric capabilities, while Beijing continues gray-zone coercion around Kinmen and other areas rather than kinetic escalation. Recent official statements, including Xi Jinping’s emphasis on avoiding conflict in favor of peaceful cross-strait ties, alongside Taiwan’s diplomatic outreach and criticism of PRC pressure tactics, reinforce trader consensus. No verified large-scale mobilization or invasion indicators have emerged in 2026 despite heightened rhetoric in China’s government work report and military budgeting. These patterns align with historical reliance on non-military means to shape outcomes, keeping the implied probability of no invasion by end-2027 elevated at current levels.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,562,503
结束日期
2027-12-31
市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan maintains robust defensive preparations through expanded military drills like the upcoming Han Kuang exercises and asymmetric capabilities, while Beijing continues gray-zone coercion around Kinmen and other areas rather than kinetic escalation. Recent official statements, including Xi Jinping’s emphasis on avoiding conflict in favor of peaceful cross-strait ties, alongside Taiwan’s diplomatic outreach and criticism of PRC pressure tactics, reinforce trader consensus. No verified large-scale mobilization or invasion indicators have emerged in 2026 despite heightened rhetoric in China’s government work report and military budgeting. These patterns align with historical reliance on non-military means to shape outcomes, keeping the implied probability of no invasion by end-2027 elevated at current levels.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$2,562,503
结束日期
2027-12-31
市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"中国会在2027年12月31日之前入侵台湾吗?",概率为 14%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 14¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 14%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?"已产生 $2.6 million 的总交易量(自Mar 17, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?"的当前领先者是"中国会在2027年12月31日之前入侵台湾吗?",概率为 14%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 14%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。