Traders assign an 86.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues to prioritize coercive measures short of war. U.S. intelligence reports, including the 2026 ODNI threat assessment, indicate Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline or invasion plans, citing PLA readiness gaps, logistical challenges for large-scale amphibious operations, and risks of U.S. intervention or sanctions. Recent diplomatic exchanges, such as the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where Xi described Taiwan as the central bilateral issue while stressing peaceful cross-strait development and opposition to independence, align with this pattern. Ongoing PLA activities remain focused on exercises, carrier transits, and drone swarm development rather than mobilization signaling imminent conflict, while Taiwan advances defensive capabilities like GPS-independent drones and live-fire tests. These factors sustain the market's view that unification efforts will stay below the threshold of full-scale invasion through the resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$2,566,756 交易量
$2,566,756 交易量
是
$2,566,756 交易量
$2,566,756 交易量
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign an 86.5% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues to prioritize coercive measures short of war. U.S. intelligence reports, including the 2026 ODNI threat assessment, indicate Chinese leaders have no fixed timeline or invasion plans, citing PLA readiness gaps, logistical challenges for large-scale amphibious operations, and risks of U.S. intervention or sanctions. Recent diplomatic exchanges, such as the May 2026 Trump-Xi summit where Xi described Taiwan as the central bilateral issue while stressing peaceful cross-strait development and opposition to independence, align with this pattern. Ongoing PLA activities remain focused on exercises, carrier transits, and drone swarm development rather than mobilization signaling imminent conflict, while Taiwan advances defensive capabilities like GPS-independent drones and live-fire tests. These factors sustain the market's view that unification efforts will stay below the threshold of full-scale invasion through the resolution date.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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