China’s official 4.5–5% growth target for 2026, combined with H1 2026 GDP expanding 4.7% year-on-year, underpins trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% outcome. Recent data show Q2 growth cooling to 4.3% amid soft household consumption, a prolonged property downturn, and higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, offset by resilient exports and manufacturing strength in high-tech and green sectors. Major forecasters including the OECD, IMF, and private banks project full-year expansion near 4.5%, aligning with authorities’ range and prompting expectations of stepped-up fiscal support. Structural imbalances and subdued domestic demand limit upside risks, while policy adjustments keep the 4.0–5.0% band the dominant probability in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.0–5.0% 87%
5.0–6.0% 11.2%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
6.0-7.0% <1%
$853,147 交易量
$853,147 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
87%
5.0–6.0%
11%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%及以上
<1%
4.0–5.0% 87%
5.0–6.0% 11.2%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
6.0-7.0% <1%
$853,147 交易量
$853,147 交易量
2026-01-31
低于1.0%
$62,833 交易量
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 交易量
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,750 交易量
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$78,772 交易量
1%
4.0–5.0%
$215,427 交易量
87%
5.0–6.0%
$78,275 交易量
11%
6.0-7.0%
$68,485 交易量
1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 交易量
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$52,482 交易量
<1%
9.0%及以上
$115,449 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 4.5–5% growth target for 2026, combined with H1 2026 GDP expanding 4.7% year-on-year, underpins trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% outcome. Recent data show Q2 growth cooling to 4.3% amid soft household consumption, a prolonged property downturn, and higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, offset by resilient exports and manufacturing strength in high-tech and green sectors. Major forecasters including the OECD, IMF, and private banks project full-year expansion near 4.5%, aligning with authorities’ range and prompting expectations of stepped-up fiscal support. Structural imbalances and subdued domestic demand limit upside risks, while policy adjustments keep the 4.0–5.0% band the dominant probability in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
交易量
$853,147结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 4.5–5% growth target for 2026, combined with H1 2026 GDP expanding 4.7% year-on-year, underpins trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% outcome. Recent data show Q2 growth cooling to 4.3% amid soft household consumption, a prolonged property downturn, and higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, offset by resilient exports and manufacturing strength in high-tech and green sectors. Major forecasters including the OECD, IMF, and private banks project full-year expansion near 4.5%, aligning with authorities’ range and prompting expectations of stepped-up fiscal support. Structural imbalances and subdued domestic demand limit upside risks, while policy adjustments keep the 4.0–5.0% band the dominant probability in current pricing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$853,147结束日期
2026-01-31市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 4.5–5% growth target for 2026, combined with H1 2026 GDP expanding 4.7% year-on-year, underpins trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% outcome. Recent data show Q2 growth cooling to 4.3% amid soft household consumption, a prolonged property downturn, and higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, offset by resilient exports and manufacturing strength in high-tech and green sectors. Major forecasters including the OECD, IMF, and private banks project full-year expansion near 4.5%, aligning with authorities’ range and prompting expectations of stepped-up fiscal support. Structural imbalances and subdued domestic demand limit upside risks, while policy adjustments keep the 4.0–5.0% band the dominant probability in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题