Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following a 2.1% Q1 pace, combined with forecaster consensus clustering near 2.1–2.3%, anchors trader sentiment in the tightly contested 1.5–2.5% range. Sticky core inflation near 3%, a stable but softening labor market with unemployment at 4.1–4.4%, and shifting drivers toward business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing capex support moderate expansion while capping upside. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the top three outcomes separated by just a few points amid uncertainty over fiscal policy effects, potential Fed hold or cuts, and Q3 data releases that could tip probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2.0–2.5% 32%
1.5–2.0% 29.4%
>2.5% 27%
1.0–1.5% 8.9%
$58,332 交易量
$58,332 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
6%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
29%
2.0–2.5%
32%
>2.5%
27%
2.0–2.5% 32%
1.5–2.0% 29.4%
>2.5% 27%
1.0–1.5% 8.9%
$58,332 交易量
$58,332 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
$7,480 交易量
6%
0.5–1.0%
$17,293 交易量
2%
1.0–1.5%
$3,825 交易量
9%
1.5–2.0%
$6,633 交易量
29%
2.0–2.5%
$7,096 交易量
32%
>2.5%
$16,005 交易量
27%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following a 2.1% Q1 pace, combined with forecaster consensus clustering near 2.1–2.3%, anchors trader sentiment in the tightly contested 1.5–2.5% range. Sticky core inflation near 3%, a stable but softening labor market with unemployment at 4.1–4.4%, and shifting drivers toward business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing capex support moderate expansion while capping upside. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the top three outcomes separated by just a few points amid uncertainty over fiscal policy effects, potential Fed hold or cuts, and Q3 data releases that could tip probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$58,332结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following a 2.1% Q1 pace, combined with forecaster consensus clustering near 2.1–2.3%, anchors trader sentiment in the tightly contested 1.5–2.5% range. Sticky core inflation near 3%, a stable but softening labor market with unemployment at 4.1–4.4%, and shifting drivers toward business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing capex support moderate expansion while capping upside. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the top three outcomes separated by just a few points amid uncertainty over fiscal policy effects, potential Fed hold or cuts, and Q3 data releases that could tip probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$58,332结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following a 2.1% Q1 pace, combined with forecaster consensus clustering near 2.1–2.3%, anchors trader sentiment in the tightly contested 1.5–2.5% range. Sticky core inflation near 3%, a stable but softening labor market with unemployment at 4.1–4.4%, and shifting drivers toward business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing capex support moderate expansion while capping upside. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the top three outcomes separated by just a few points amid uncertainty over fiscal policy effects, potential Fed hold or cuts, and Q3 data releases that could tip probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题