Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year inflation, with core at 2.4%, combined with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate, anchor trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and the June dot plot, which shifted more officials toward potential hikes amid energy-driven price pressures, support the 61.5% implied probability for holding the 3.50-3.75% target range. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point increase at 36.5% reflect ongoing inflation concerns and the September FOMC outcome, while the low probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks in the current data environment. The upcoming September decision and September CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 62%
加息25个基点 37%
下调25个基点 3.1%
加息50个基点以上 <1%
$1,823,196 交易量
$1,823,196 交易量
2026-10-28
下调50个基点以上
1%
下调25个基点
3%
无变化
62%
加息25个基点
37%
加息50个基点以上
1%
无变化 62%
加息25个基点 37%
下调25个基点 3.1%
加息50个基点以上 <1%
$1,823,196 交易量
$1,823,196 交易量
2026-10-28
下调50个基点以上
$304,701 交易量
1%
下调25个基点
$621,133 交易量
3%
无变化
$302,922 交易量
62%
加息25个基点
$390,411 交易量
37%
加息50个基点以上
$204,030 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year inflation, with core at 2.4%, combined with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate, anchor trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and the June dot plot, which shifted more officials toward potential hikes amid energy-driven price pressures, support the 61.5% implied probability for holding the 3.50-3.75% target range. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point increase at 36.5% reflect ongoing inflation concerns and the September FOMC outcome, while the low probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks in the current data environment. The upcoming September decision and September CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$1,823,196结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year inflation, with core at 2.4%, combined with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate, anchor trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and the June dot plot, which shifted more officials toward potential hikes amid energy-driven price pressures, support the 61.5% implied probability for holding the 3.50-3.75% target range. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point increase at 36.5% reflect ongoing inflation concerns and the September FOMC outcome, while the low probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks in the current data environment. The upcoming September decision and September CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$1,823,196结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETRecent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year inflation, with core at 2.4%, combined with a stable 4.1% unemployment rate, anchor trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh and the June dot plot, which shifted more officials toward potential hikes amid energy-driven price pressures, support the 61.5% implied probability for holding the 3.50-3.75% target range. Market-implied odds of a 25 basis point increase at 36.5% reflect ongoing inflation concerns and the September FOMC outcome, while the low probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks in the current data environment. The upcoming September decision and September CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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