Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, driven by inflation holding above the 2% target and a resilient labor market, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October FOMC meeting, with a 25 basis point hike at 31.5%. July 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, while August employment added 162,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Recent communications from officials, including Governor Waller, emphasize data dependence ahead of the September 15-16 decision and the August CPI release on September 11, tempering expectations for near-term easing while highlighting risks from supply pressures and elevated readings. This setup leaves room for shifts if incoming data shows sustained disinflation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 67%
加息25个基点 32%
下调25个基点 3.3%
加息50个基点以上 <1%
$1,467,041 交易量
$1,467,041 交易量
2026-10-28
下调50个基点以上
<1%
下调25个基点
3%
无变化
67%
加息25个基点
32%
加息50个基点以上
1%
无变化 67%
加息25个基点 32%
下调25个基点 3.3%
加息50个基点以上 <1%
$1,467,041 交易量
$1,467,041 交易量
2026-10-28
下调50个基点以上
$242,159 交易量
<1%
下调25个基点
$554,966 交易量
3%
无变化
$231,992 交易量
67%
加息25个基点
$273,430 交易量
32%
加息50个基点以上
$164,494 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, driven by inflation holding above the 2% target and a resilient labor market, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October FOMC meeting, with a 25 basis point hike at 31.5%. July 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, while August employment added 162,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Recent communications from officials, including Governor Waller, emphasize data dependence ahead of the September 15-16 decision and the August CPI release on September 11, tempering expectations for near-term easing while highlighting risks from supply pressures and elevated readings. This setup leaves room for shifts if incoming data shows sustained disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$1,467,041结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, driven by inflation holding above the 2% target and a resilient labor market, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October FOMC meeting, with a 25 basis point hike at 31.5%. July 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, while August employment added 162,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Recent communications from officials, including Governor Waller, emphasize data dependence ahead of the September 15-16 decision and the August CPI release on September 11, tempering expectations for near-term easing while highlighting risks from supply pressures and elevated readings. This setup leaves room for shifts if incoming data shows sustained disinflation.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$1,467,041结束日期
2026-10-28市场开放时间
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETHawkish signals from the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh, driven by inflation holding above the 2% target and a resilient labor market, underpin the 66.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October FOMC meeting, with a 25 basis point hike at 31.5%. July 2026 CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year, with core at 2.5%, while August employment added 162,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. Recent communications from officials, including Governor Waller, emphasize data dependence ahead of the September 15-16 decision and the August CPI release on September 11, tempering expectations for near-term easing while highlighting risks from supply pressures and elevated readings. This setup leaves room for shifts if incoming data shows sustained disinflation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题