Recent FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market conditions and persistent inflation pressures from supply disruptions, have fragmented trader views on the September, October, and December policy path. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent and market-implied odds showing no dominant sequence, the dispersion across hike-pause-hike, hike-pause-pause, and pause-pause-hike paths reflects uncertainty over whether incoming CPI and employment data will justify tightening before year-end. Upcoming September 15-16 meeting minutes and pre-FOMC releases remain key swing factors that could shift consensus around the 23 percent leading outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息-暂停-加息 24%
加息–暂停–暂停 17%
暂停–暂停–加息 15%
加息-加息-暂停 14%
最新
最新
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
24%
加息–暂停–暂停
17%
连加三次息
6%
加息-加息-暂停
14%
暂停–暂停–加息
15%
连续三次按兵不动
14%
暂停–加息–加息
8%
暂停–加息–暂停
9%
其他
6%
加息-暂停-加息 24%
加息–暂停–暂停 17%
暂停–暂停–加息 15%
加息-加息-暂停 14%
最新
最新
2026-12-09
加息-暂停-加息
$138 交易量
24%
加息–暂停–暂停
$137 交易量
17%
连加三次息
$50 交易量
6%
加息-加息-暂停
$68 交易量
14%
暂停–暂停–加息
$106 交易量
15%
连续三次按兵不动
$45 交易量
14%
暂停–加息–加息
$35 交易量
8%
暂停–加息–暂停
$52 交易量
9%
其他
$35 交易量
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market conditions and persistent inflation pressures from supply disruptions, have fragmented trader views on the September, October, and December policy path. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent and market-implied odds showing no dominant sequence, the dispersion across hike-pause-hike, hike-pause-pause, and pause-pause-hike paths reflects uncertainty over whether incoming CPI and employment data will justify tightening before year-end. Upcoming September 15-16 meeting minutes and pre-FOMC releases remain key swing factors that could shift consensus around the 23 percent leading outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
交易量
$666结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market conditions and persistent inflation pressures from supply disruptions, have fragmented trader views on the September, October, and December policy path. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent and market-implied odds showing no dominant sequence, the dispersion across hike-pause-hike, hike-pause-pause, and pause-pause-hike paths reflects uncertainty over whether incoming CPI and employment data will justify tightening before year-end. Upcoming September 15-16 meeting minutes and pre-FOMC releases remain key swing factors that could shift consensus around the 23 percent leading outcome.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$666结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRecent FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh, combined with resilient labor market conditions and persistent inflation pressures from supply disruptions, have fragmented trader views on the September, October, and December policy path. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent and market-implied odds showing no dominant sequence, the dispersion across hike-pause-hike, hike-pause-pause, and pause-pause-hike paths reflects uncertainty over whether incoming CPI and employment data will justify tightening before year-end. Upcoming September 15-16 meeting minutes and pre-FOMC releases remain key swing factors that could shift consensus around the 23 percent leading outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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