The dismissal of the January 2026 DOJ criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations has anchored the 98% market-implied probability against incarceration before 2027. No charges were filed after the April 2026 closure, and Powell transitioned from chair to board governor without legal impediment, consistent with the central bank’s insulation from routine political pressure and the high evidentiary bar for false-statement prosecutions. Traders price in these institutional safeguards and the absence of subsequent regulatory or judicial developments. Residual tail risks include improbable new investigations or extraordinary political actions lacking evidentiary foundation, which would face substantial legal and procedural hurdles before affecting Powell’s status.