Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and annual inflation easing to 3.4% alongside unexpected nonfarm payroll losses of 23,000 have tempered expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, balancing the 51.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid Middle East-driven oil pressures and resilient core inflation near 2.6%, traders weigh a softening labor market against persistent price risks above the 2% target. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and August CPI release, where sustained disinflation or further employment weakness could solidify odds against hikes while renewed energy shocks might shift consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
49% 概率
$7,614,878 交易量
$7,614,878 交易量
2026-12-09
是
49% 概率
$7,614,878 交易量
$7,614,878 交易量
2026-12-09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and annual inflation easing to 3.4% alongside unexpected nonfarm payroll losses of 23,000 have tempered expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, balancing the 51.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid Middle East-driven oil pressures and resilient core inflation near 2.6%, traders weigh a softening labor market against persistent price risks above the 2% target. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and August CPI release, where sustained disinflation or further employment weakness could solidify odds against hikes while renewed energy shocks might shift consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$7,614,878结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and annual inflation easing to 3.4% alongside unexpected nonfarm payroll losses of 23,000 have tempered expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, balancing the 51.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid Middle East-driven oil pressures and resilient core inflation near 2.6%, traders weigh a softening labor market against persistent price risks above the 2% target. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and August CPI release, where sustained disinflation or further employment weakness could solidify odds against hikes while renewed energy shocks might shift consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,614,878结束日期
2026-12-09市场开放时间
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July CPI data showing a 0.1% monthly rise and annual inflation easing to 3.4% alongside unexpected nonfarm payroll losses of 23,000 have tempered expectations for Federal Reserve tightening, balancing the 51.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 rate hike. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid Middle East-driven oil pressures and resilient core inflation near 2.6%, traders weigh a softening labor market against persistent price risks above the 2% target. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and August CPI release, where sustained disinflation or further employment weakness could solidify odds against hikes while renewed energy shocks might shift consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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