Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year alongside core measures at 2.4%, combined with geopolitical tensions elevating energy prices, have reinforced expectations for a steady federal funds rate through early 2027. The labor market remains resilient with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, supporting the FOMC’s patient stance under current policy at 3.5–3.75%. These factors position no change as the leading January 2027 outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while the 23.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike reflects upside inflation risks from supply shocks. Trader positioning incorporates upcoming releases and the September dot plot as key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于No change 57%
加息25个基点 24%
25 bps decrease 11%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$73,246 交易量
$73,246 交易量
2027-01-27
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
11%
No change
57%
加息25个基点
24%
上调50个基点以上
2%
No change 57%
加息25个基点 24%
25 bps decrease 11%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$73,246 交易量
$73,246 交易量
2027-01-27
50+ bps decrease
$14,016 交易量
5%
25 bps decrease
$15,292 交易量
11%
No change
$21,353 交易量
57%
加息25个基点
$17,235 交易量
24%
上调50个基点以上
$5,349 交易量
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year alongside core measures at 2.4%, combined with geopolitical tensions elevating energy prices, have reinforced expectations for a steady federal funds rate through early 2027. The labor market remains resilient with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, supporting the FOMC’s patient stance under current policy at 3.5–3.75%. These factors position no change as the leading January 2027 outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while the 23.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike reflects upside inflation risks from supply shocks. Trader positioning incorporates upcoming releases and the September dot plot as key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
交易量
$73,246结束日期
2027-01-27市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETThe FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent U.S. inflation data, including the August CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year alongside core measures at 2.4%, combined with geopolitical tensions elevating energy prices, have reinforced expectations for a steady federal funds rate through early 2027. The labor market remains resilient with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, supporting the FOMC’s patient stance under current policy at 3.5–3.75%. These factors position no change as the leading January 2027 outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while the 23.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike reflects upside inflation risks from supply shocks. Trader positioning incorporates upcoming releases and the September dot plot as key near-term catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$73,246结束日期
2027-01-27市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETRecent U.S. inflation data, including the August CPI rising 0.4% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year alongside core measures at 2.4%, combined with geopolitical tensions elevating energy prices, have reinforced expectations for a steady federal funds rate through early 2027. The labor market remains resilient with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains, supporting the FOMC’s patient stance under current policy at 3.5–3.75%. These factors position no change as the leading January 2027 outcome at 57.5% implied probability, while the 23.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike reflects upside inflation risks from supply shocks. Trader positioning incorporates upcoming releases and the September dot plot as key near-term catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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