Persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment around potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, offsetting a softer July jobs report. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 FOMC decision, which passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. CME FedWatch currently prices a near-coin-flip outcome for the September meeting, while markets assign elevated odds to at least one tightening by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and the September FOMC gathering, where incoming labor and price data will shape the balance between growth concerns and the Fed’s dual mandate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$2,313,788 交易量
2026-12-08
9月会议
28%
十月会议
42%
$2,313,788 交易量
9月会议
$867,613 交易量
28%
十月会议
$486,175 交易量
42%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment around potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, offsetting a softer July jobs report. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 FOMC decision, which passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. CME FedWatch currently prices a near-coin-flip outcome for the September meeting, while markets assign elevated odds to at least one tightening by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and the September FOMC gathering, where incoming labor and price data will shape the balance between growth concerns and the Fed’s dual mandate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$2,313,788结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment around potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, offsetting a softer July jobs report. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 FOMC decision, which passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. CME FedWatch currently prices a near-coin-flip outcome for the September meeting, while markets assign elevated odds to at least one tightening by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and the September FOMC gathering, where incoming labor and price data will shape the balance between growth concerns and the Fed’s dual mandate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,313,788结束日期
2026-10-29市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures from elevated oil prices—up roughly 25% amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict—remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment around potential Federal Reserve rate hikes, offsetting a softer July jobs report. The federal funds rate sits at 3.50–3.75% following the July 29 FOMC decision, which passed 9–3 with three dissents favoring a 25-basis-point increase. CME FedWatch currently prices a near-coin-flip outcome for the September meeting, while markets assign elevated odds to at least one tightening by year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include the next CPI release and the September FOMC gathering, where incoming labor and price data will shape the balance between growth concerns and the Fed’s dual mandate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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