Persistent inflation pressures, including June 2026 CPI prints near 4.2% year-over-year amid Middle East-driven energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment around 4.2%, have anchored market-implied odds near even between a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings and alternative paths. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscores internal divisions and has shifted trader sentiment toward greater odds of tightening by September. Treasury yields and futures pricing reflect this hawkish tilt, while softer recent inflation readings provide limited counterbalance. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, alongside incoming CPI and employment data, remains the key near-term catalyst that could resolve the tight contest between sustained holds and a policy shift.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 49%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$676,311 交易量
$676,311 交易量
2026-09-16
Pause–Pause–Pause
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
49%
Pause–Pause–Pause 51%
Other 49%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$676,311 交易量
$676,311 交易量
2026-09-16
Pause–Pause–Pause
$269,813 交易量
51%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$59,046 交易量
1%
Other
$291,576 交易量
49%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, including June 2026 CPI prints near 4.2% year-over-year amid Middle East-driven energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment around 4.2%, have anchored market-implied odds near even between a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings and alternative paths. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscores internal divisions and has shifted trader sentiment toward greater odds of tightening by September. Treasury yields and futures pricing reflect this hawkish tilt, while softer recent inflation readings provide limited counterbalance. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, alongside incoming CPI and employment data, remains the key near-term catalyst that could resolve the tight contest between sustained holds and a policy shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
交易量
$676,311结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, including June 2026 CPI prints near 4.2% year-over-year amid Middle East-driven energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment around 4.2%, have anchored market-implied odds near even between a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings and alternative paths. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscores internal divisions and has shifted trader sentiment toward greater odds of tightening by September. Treasury yields and futures pricing reflect this hawkish tilt, while softer recent inflation readings provide limited counterbalance. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, alongside incoming CPI and employment data, remains the key near-term catalyst that could resolve the tight contest between sustained holds and a policy shift.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$676,311结束日期
2026-09-16市场开放时间
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, including June 2026 CPI prints near 4.2% year-over-year amid Middle East-driven energy price spikes, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment around 4.2%, have anchored market-implied odds near even between a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence across the June, July, and September FOMC meetings and alternative paths. The July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, underscores internal divisions and has shifted trader sentiment toward greater odds of tightening by September. Treasury yields and futures pricing reflect this hawkish tilt, while softer recent inflation readings provide limited counterbalance. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting, alongside incoming CPI and employment data, remains the key near-term catalyst that could resolve the tight contest between sustained holds and a policy shift.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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