Recent surges in oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, combined with sticky August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and firm producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.95% as of mid-September 2026—its highest levels since 2023 and approaching the 5% threshold last breached in 2007. These developments have elevated market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to around 70%, shifting expectations from earlier easing bets and lifting the term premium. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, traders are monitoring upcoming inflation releases and central bank guidance for further signals on whether yields sustain above 5% or face resistance from fiscal or growth concerns through 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
$381,364 交易量
2026-12-30
5.0%
84%
5.1%
66%
5.2%
33%
5.5%
7%
5.7%
8%
6.0%
3%
$381,364 交易量
5.0%
$108,171 交易量
84%
5.1%
$1,778 交易量
66%
5.2%
$54,754 交易量
33%
5.5%
$17,061 交易量
7%
5.7%
$9,001 交易量
8%
6.0%
$8,456 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent surges in oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, combined with sticky August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and firm producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.95% as of mid-September 2026—its highest levels since 2023 and approaching the 5% threshold last breached in 2007. These developments have elevated market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to around 70%, shifting expectations from earlier easing bets and lifting the term premium. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, traders are monitoring upcoming inflation releases and central bank guidance for further signals on whether yields sustain above 5% or face resistance from fiscal or growth concerns through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$381,364结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent surges in oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, combined with sticky August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and firm producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.95% as of mid-September 2026—its highest levels since 2023 and approaching the 5% threshold last breached in 2007. These developments have elevated market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to around 70%, shifting expectations from earlier easing bets and lifting the term premium. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, traders are monitoring upcoming inflation releases and central bank guidance for further signals on whether yields sustain above 5% or face resistance from fiscal or growth concerns through 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$381,364结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETRecent surges in oil prices above $100 per barrel amid Middle East supply risks, combined with sticky August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and firm producer prices, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.95% as of mid-September 2026—its highest levels since 2023 and approaching the 5% threshold last breached in 2007. These developments have elevated market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to around 70%, shifting expectations from earlier easing bets and lifting the term premium. With the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%, traders are monitoring upcoming inflation releases and central bank guidance for further signals on whether yields sustain above 5% or face resistance from fiscal or growth concerns through 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题