The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 4.97% as of September 11, 2026, its highest level since late 2023, amid resilient inflation readings and shifting monetary policy expectations. August CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, while producer prices also firmed, reinforcing concerns that price pressures may persist longer than anticipated. Markets are now pricing a substantial probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections and a dot plot, lifting the implied path for the federal funds rate. Contributing factors include elevated Treasury issuance amid large fiscal deficits, a rising term premium as investors demand greater compensation for duration risk, and corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure outlays that compete for long-term capital. Geopolitical tensions supporting higher energy prices have added further upward pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming FOMC decision, subsequent inflation and employment data, and any revisions to growth or policy outlooks that could influence the yield trajectory through year-end and into 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
2027年之前， 10年期美国国债收益率会有多高？
$382,033 交易量
2026-12-30
5.0%
84%
5.1%
67%
5.2%
33%
5.5%
8%
5.7%
9%
6.0%
3%
$382,033 交易量
5.0%
$108,171 交易量
84%
5.1%
$2,094 交易量
67%
5.2%
$54,922 交易量
33%
5.5%
$17,167 交易量
8%
5.7%
$9,081 交易量
9%
6.0%
$8,456 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 4.97% as of September 11, 2026, its highest level since late 2023, amid resilient inflation readings and shifting monetary policy expectations. August CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, while producer prices also firmed, reinforcing concerns that price pressures may persist longer than anticipated. Markets are now pricing a substantial probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections and a dot plot, lifting the implied path for the federal funds rate. Contributing factors include elevated Treasury issuance amid large fiscal deficits, a rising term premium as investors demand greater compensation for duration risk, and corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure outlays that compete for long-term capital. Geopolitical tensions supporting higher energy prices have added further upward pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming FOMC decision, subsequent inflation and employment data, and any revisions to growth or policy outlooks that could influence the yield trajectory through year-end and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$382,033结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 4.97% as of September 11, 2026, its highest level since late 2023, amid resilient inflation readings and shifting monetary policy expectations. August CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, while producer prices also firmed, reinforcing concerns that price pressures may persist longer than anticipated. Markets are now pricing a substantial probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections and a dot plot, lifting the implied path for the federal funds rate. Contributing factors include elevated Treasury issuance amid large fiscal deficits, a rising term premium as investors demand greater compensation for duration risk, and corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure outlays that compete for long-term capital. Geopolitical tensions supporting higher energy prices have added further upward pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming FOMC decision, subsequent inflation and employment data, and any revisions to growth or policy outlooks that could influence the yield trajectory through year-end and into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$382,033结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETThe 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to approximately 4.97% as of September 11, 2026, its highest level since late 2023, amid resilient inflation readings and shifting monetary policy expectations. August CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.4%, while producer prices also firmed, reinforcing concerns that price pressures may persist longer than anticipated. Markets are now pricing a substantial probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, which includes updated economic projections and a dot plot, lifting the implied path for the federal funds rate. Contributing factors include elevated Treasury issuance amid large fiscal deficits, a rising term premium as investors demand greater compensation for duration risk, and corporate borrowing tied to AI infrastructure outlays that compete for long-term capital. Geopolitical tensions supporting higher energy prices have added further upward pressure. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming FOMC decision, subsequent inflation and employment data, and any revisions to growth or policy outlooks that could influence the yield trajectory through year-end and into 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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