Recent Treasury supply from elevated fiscal deficits and resilient U.S. growth have lifted the 10-year yield to 4.73% as of August 21, 2026, widening the term premium amid steady inflation near 3%. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, with the federal funds rate held at 3.5-3.75%, has anchored expectations for limited near-term easing, while oil price volatility from geopolitical tensions added upward pressure. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations and CPI releases will clarify whether cooling labor market data can overcome supply-driven resistance to lower yields before year-end 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$225,402 交易量
2026-12-30
3.9%
12%
3.8%
4%
3.7%
3%
3.6%
4%
3.5%
1%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
5%
1.0%
2%
$225,402 交易量
3.9%
$44,197 交易量
12%
3.8%
$41,312 交易量
4%
3.7%
$27,425 交易量
3%
3.6%
$5,589 交易量
4%
3.5%
$33,070 交易量
1%
3.0%
$917 交易量
2%
2.0%
$564 交易量
5%
1.0%
$40,570 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent Treasury supply from elevated fiscal deficits and resilient U.S. growth have lifted the 10-year yield to 4.73% as of August 21, 2026, widening the term premium amid steady inflation near 3%. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, with the federal funds rate held at 3.5-3.75%, has anchored expectations for limited near-term easing, while oil price volatility from geopolitical tensions added upward pressure. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations and CPI releases will clarify whether cooling labor market data can overcome supply-driven resistance to lower yields before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$225,402结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent Treasury supply from elevated fiscal deficits and resilient U.S. growth have lifted the 10-year yield to 4.73% as of August 21, 2026, widening the term premium amid steady inflation near 3%. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, with the federal funds rate held at 3.5-3.75%, has anchored expectations for limited near-term easing, while oil price volatility from geopolitical tensions added upward pressure. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations and CPI releases will clarify whether cooling labor market data can overcome supply-driven resistance to lower yields before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$225,402结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Treasury supply from elevated fiscal deficits and resilient U.S. growth have lifted the 10-year yield to 4.73% as of August 21, 2026, widening the term premium amid steady inflation near 3%. The Federal Reserve’s patient stance, with the federal funds rate held at 3.5-3.75%, has anchored expectations for limited near-term easing, while oil price volatility from geopolitical tensions added upward pressure. Upcoming September FOMC deliberations and CPI releases will clarify whether cooling labor market data can overcome supply-driven resistance to lower yields before year-end 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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