Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of a U.S. debt default by end of 2027, reflecting Congress's repeated history of raising or suspending the debt limit to avert crisis, as in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that boosted the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion amid current debt near $38.5 trillion. Recent fiscal pressures include a $1 trillion deficit through February 2026 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's March warning of unsustainable debt growth outpacing GDP, yet no imminent X-date looms, with Treasury projecting manageable borrowing through mid-2026. Averted government shutdowns via continuing resolutions underscore bipartisan incentives to avoid default's catastrophic economic fallout, though late-2026 projections and FY2027 budget talks could test resolve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
$14,699 交易量
$14,699 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$14,699 交易量
$14,699 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of a U.S. debt default by end of 2027, reflecting Congress's repeated history of raising or suspending the debt limit to avert crisis, as in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that boosted the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion amid current debt near $38.5 trillion. Recent fiscal pressures include a $1 trillion deficit through February 2026 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's March warning of unsustainable debt growth outpacing GDP, yet no imminent X-date looms, with Treasury projecting manageable borrowing through mid-2026. Averted government shutdowns via continuing resolutions underscore bipartisan incentives to avoid default's catastrophic economic fallout, though late-2026 projections and FY2027 budget talks could test resolve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$14,699结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of a U.S. debt default by end of 2027, reflecting Congress's repeated history of raising or suspending the debt limit to avert crisis, as in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that boosted the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion amid current debt near $38.5 trillion. Recent fiscal pressures include a $1 trillion deficit through February 2026 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's March warning of unsustainable debt growth outpacing GDP, yet no imminent X-date looms, with Treasury projecting manageable borrowing through mid-2026. Averted government shutdowns via continuing resolutions underscore bipartisan incentives to avoid default's catastrophic economic fallout, though late-2026 projections and FY2027 budget talks could test resolve.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$14,699结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a mere 5% chance of a U.S. debt default by end of 2027, reflecting Congress's repeated history of raising or suspending the debt limit to avert crisis, as in the July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act that boosted the ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion amid current debt near $38.5 trillion. Recent fiscal pressures include a $1 trillion deficit through February 2026 and Federal Reserve Chair Powell's March warning of unsustainable debt growth outpacing GDP, yet no imminent X-date looms, with Treasury projecting manageable borrowing through mid-2026. Averted government shutdowns via continuing resolutions underscore bipartisan incentives to avoid default's catastrophic economic fallout, though late-2026 projections and FY2027 budget talks could test resolve.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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