Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2027 because Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in 2025 and recent estimates place the next binding limit and X-date well into 2028 after extraordinary measures. The Treasury has maintained steady auction schedules and built substantial cash reserves, while major rating agencies have affirmed stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign credit. Historical precedent shows repeated bipartisan resolutions of debt-limit impasses before any payment failure occurs, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market. Plausible shifts could still arise from an extended 2027 congressional standoff that exhausts cash buffers or from an abrupt fiscal shock that accelerates borrowing needs beyond current projections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2027 because Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in 2025 and recent estimates place the next binding limit and X-date well into 2028 after extraordinary measures. The Treasury has maintained steady auction schedules and built substantial cash reserves, while major rating agencies have affirmed stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign credit. Historical precedent shows repeated bipartisan resolutions of debt-limit impasses before any payment failure occurs, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market. Plausible shifts could still arise from an extended 2027 congressional standoff that exhausts cash buffers or from an abrupt fiscal shock that accelerates borrowing needs beyond current projections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2027 because Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in 2025 and recent estimates place the next binding limit and X-date well into 2028 after extraordinary measures. The Treasury has maintained steady auction schedules and built substantial cash reserves, while major rating agencies have affirmed stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign credit. Historical precedent shows repeated bipartisan resolutions of debt-limit impasses before any payment failure occurs, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market. Plausible shifts could still arise from an extended 2027 congressional standoff that exhausts cash buffers or from an abrupt fiscal shock that accelerates borrowing needs beyond current projections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETTraders assign a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by the end of 2027 because Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in 2025 and recent estimates place the next binding limit and X-date well into 2028 after extraordinary measures. The Treasury has maintained steady auction schedules and built substantial cash reserves, while major rating agencies have affirmed stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign credit. Historical precedent shows repeated bipartisan resolutions of debt-limit impasses before any payment failure occurs, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status and deep Treasury market. Plausible shifts could still arise from an extended 2027 congressional standoff that exhausts cash buffers or from an abrupt fiscal shock that accelerates borrowing needs beyond current projections.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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