Traders price a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow any missed Treasury payment, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional credibility. The next contact date is projected for spring or summer 2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway. Outcomes could still shift under prolonged congressional deadlock, an unforeseen fiscal shock, or failure to complete appropriations legislation before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders price a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow any missed Treasury payment, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional credibility. The next contact date is projected for spring or summer 2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway. Outcomes could still shift under prolonged congressional deadlock, an unforeseen fiscal shock, or failure to complete appropriations legislation before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders price a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow any missed Treasury payment, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional credibility. The next contact date is projected for spring or summer 2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway. Outcomes could still shift under prolonged congressional deadlock, an unforeseen fiscal shock, or failure to complete appropriations legislation before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$18,051结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETTraders price a 97% probability against a U.S. debt default by 2027 because Congress has repeatedly raised or suspended the debt limit ahead of exhaustion, most recently through the 2025 reconciliation bill that set the cap at $41.1 trillion. Both parties have strong incentives to avoid the market disruptions, higher borrowing costs, and global instability that would follow any missed Treasury payment, reinforced by the dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market liquidity, and institutional credibility. The next contact date is projected for spring or summer 2027, with extraordinary measures available to extend runway. Outcomes could still shift under prolonged congressional deadlock, an unforeseen fiscal shock, or failure to complete appropriations legislation before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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