The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that independent forecasts project will extend into 2027 before the next limit is approached. Congress has adjusted or suspended the ceiling more than 100 times historically, always averting default on Treasury obligations through legislation despite prior impasses. A June 2026 Bipartisan Policy Center analysis indicates the limit will likely be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027, after which the Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures for additional months. With no recent signals of acute political deadlock and persistent incentives for lawmakers to enact further increases or suspensions, trader consensus at 94.7% for no default by end-2027 reflects this established pattern and timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
$15,072 交易量
$15,072 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$15,072 交易量
$15,072 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that independent forecasts project will extend into 2027 before the next limit is approached. Congress has adjusted or suspended the ceiling more than 100 times historically, always averting default on Treasury obligations through legislation despite prior impasses. A June 2026 Bipartisan Policy Center analysis indicates the limit will likely be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027, after which the Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures for additional months. With no recent signals of acute political deadlock and persistent incentives for lawmakers to enact further increases or suspensions, trader consensus at 94.7% for no default by end-2027 reflects this established pattern and timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$15,072结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that independent forecasts project will extend into 2027 before the next limit is approached. Congress has adjusted or suspended the ceiling more than 100 times historically, always averting default on Treasury obligations through legislation despite prior impasses. A June 2026 Bipartisan Policy Center analysis indicates the limit will likely be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027, after which the Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures for additional months. With no recent signals of acute political deadlock and persistent incentives for lawmakers to enact further increases or suspensions, trader consensus at 94.7% for no default by end-2027 reflects this established pattern and timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$15,072结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that independent forecasts project will extend into 2027 before the next limit is approached. Congress has adjusted or suspended the ceiling more than 100 times historically, always averting default on Treasury obligations through legislation despite prior impasses. A June 2026 Bipartisan Policy Center analysis indicates the limit will likely be reached between late winter and mid-summer 2027, after which the Treasury can deploy extraordinary measures for additional months. With no recent signals of acute political deadlock and persistent incentives for lawmakers to enact further increases or suspensions, trader consensus at 94.7% for no default by end-2027 reflects this established pattern and timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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