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icon for 普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？
地缘政治·普京

普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？

icon for 普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？
地缘政治·普京

普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？

7月 1, 2027

7月 1, 2027

$24,941,137 交易量

2026-09-30
赚 3.25% 收益
Polymarket

$24,941,137 交易量

Polymarket

2026年9月30日

$1,353,669 交易量

1%

2026年12月31日

$21,792,252 交易量

5%

2027年6月30日

$441,263 交易量

14%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Russia's tightly controlled political system and Vladimir Putin's constitutional term extensions through at least 2030 underpin trader consensus that he will remain president through late 2026 and into 2027, with implied probabilities for removal by December 2026 or June 2027 ranging from roughly 5-14 percent. Recent parliamentary elections, held September 18-20, 2026, are expected to reinforce United Russia dominance and signal sustained public backing for the Ukraine campaign despite fuel shortages from Ukrainian strikes and modest dips in approval ratings. Diplomatic contacts with U.S. envoys and President Trump have produced no leadership changes or concessions that alter succession dynamics, while elite cohesion and expanded internal security measures continue to limit visible pathways for rapid transition. Scheduled events such as ongoing battlefield developments and any follow-on peace talks remain the primary variables that could shift positioning.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$24,941,137
结束日期
2027-07-01
市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

结算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Russia's tightly controlled political system and Vladimir Putin's constitutional term extensions through at least 2030 underpin trader consensus that he will remain president through late 2026 and into 2027, with implied probabilities for removal by December 2026 or June 2027 ranging from roughly 5-14 percent. Recent parliamentary elections, held September 18-20, 2026, are expected to reinforce United Russia dominance and signal sustained public backing for the Ukraine campaign despite fuel shortages from Ukrainian strikes and modest dips in approval ratings. Diplomatic contacts with U.S. envoys and President Trump have produced no leadership changes or concessions that alter succession dynamics, while elite cohesion and expanded internal security measures continue to limit visible pathways for rapid transition. Scheduled events such as ongoing battlefield developments and any follow-on peace talks remain the primary variables that could shift positioning.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$24,941,137
结束日期
2027-07-01
市场开放时间
Jul 6, 2026, 5:32 PM ET

结算方

0x65070BE91...

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常见问题

"普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 5 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2027年6月30日"，概率为 14%，其次是"2026年12月31日"，概率为 5%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 14¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 14%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？"已产生 $24.9 million 的总交易量（自Jul 6, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 5 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？"的当前领先者是"2027年6月30日"，概率为 14%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 14%。紧随其后的结果是"2026年12月31日"，概率为 5%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"普京在……之前就任俄罗斯总统？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。