Russia's ongoing commitment to positional advances in Ukraine, including intensified missile strikes on Kyiv in early August 2026 and a failed spring-summer offensive yielding minimal territorial gains, anchors trader expectations against a new invasion. Moscow continues prioritizing drone integration, small-unit infiltration, and sustainment of high-casualty grinding warfare in Donetsk rather than mechanized operations that could enable broader aggression. Diplomatic signals and resource allocation through mid-2026 remain focused on consolidating Ukrainian territory amid stalled ceasefire talks, with no verified preparations targeting additional states. This sustained focus, coupled with recruitment and equipment constraints, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for no new invasion in 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$373,500 交易量
$373,500 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$373,500 交易量
$373,500 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing commitment to positional advances in Ukraine, including intensified missile strikes on Kyiv in early August 2026 and a failed spring-summer offensive yielding minimal territorial gains, anchors trader expectations against a new invasion. Moscow continues prioritizing drone integration, small-unit infiltration, and sustainment of high-casualty grinding warfare in Donetsk rather than mechanized operations that could enable broader aggression. Diplomatic signals and resource allocation through mid-2026 remain focused on consolidating Ukrainian territory amid stalled ceasefire talks, with no verified preparations targeting additional states. This sustained focus, coupled with recruitment and equipment constraints, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for no new invasion in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$373,500结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing commitment to positional advances in Ukraine, including intensified missile strikes on Kyiv in early August 2026 and a failed spring-summer offensive yielding minimal territorial gains, anchors trader expectations against a new invasion. Moscow continues prioritizing drone integration, small-unit infiltration, and sustainment of high-casualty grinding warfare in Donetsk rather than mechanized operations that could enable broader aggression. Diplomatic signals and resource allocation through mid-2026 remain focused on consolidating Ukrainian territory amid stalled ceasefire talks, with no verified preparations targeting additional states. This sustained focus, coupled with recruitment and equipment constraints, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for no new invasion in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$373,500结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing commitment to positional advances in Ukraine, including intensified missile strikes on Kyiv in early August 2026 and a failed spring-summer offensive yielding minimal territorial gains, anchors trader expectations against a new invasion. Moscow continues prioritizing drone integration, small-unit infiltration, and sustainment of high-casualty grinding warfare in Donetsk rather than mechanized operations that could enable broader aggression. Diplomatic signals and resource allocation through mid-2026 remain focused on consolidating Ukrainian territory amid stalled ceasefire talks, with no verified preparations targeting additional states. This sustained focus, coupled with recruitment and equipment constraints, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for no new invasion in 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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