Russia remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, where forces continue large-scale missile and drone strikes on infrastructure and cities while sustaining record monthly casualties through mid-2026. This resource drain, combined with reconstitution efforts focused on the existing front rather than new theaters, has limited capacity for opening another conventional conflict before year-end. Western assessments note intensified hybrid activities and rhetorical pressure on neighbors but no verified preparations or movements indicating an imminent invasion of additional territory. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no new invasion reflects these operational constraints and the absence of triggering developments in recent months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
6% 概率
$409,057 交易量
$409,057 交易量
2026-12-30
是
6% 概率
$409,057 交易量
$409,057 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, where forces continue large-scale missile and drone strikes on infrastructure and cities while sustaining record monthly casualties through mid-2026. This resource drain, combined with reconstitution efforts focused on the existing front rather than new theaters, has limited capacity for opening another conventional conflict before year-end. Western assessments note intensified hybrid activities and rhetorical pressure on neighbors but no verified preparations or movements indicating an imminent invasion of additional territory. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no new invasion reflects these operational constraints and the absence of triggering developments in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$409,057结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, where forces continue large-scale missile and drone strikes on infrastructure and cities while sustaining record monthly casualties through mid-2026. This resource drain, combined with reconstitution efforts focused on the existing front rather than new theaters, has limited capacity for opening another conventional conflict before year-end. Western assessments note intensified hybrid activities and rhetorical pressure on neighbors but no verified preparations or movements indicating an imminent invasion of additional territory. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no new invasion reflects these operational constraints and the absence of triggering developments in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$409,057结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia remains heavily committed to its ongoing campaign in Ukraine, where forces continue large-scale missile and drone strikes on infrastructure and cities while sustaining record monthly casualties through mid-2026. This resource drain, combined with reconstitution efforts focused on the existing front rather than new theaters, has limited capacity for opening another conventional conflict before year-end. Western assessments note intensified hybrid activities and rhetorical pressure on neighbors but no verified preparations or movements indicating an imminent invasion of additional territory. Trader consensus at 94.5% for no new invasion reflects these operational constraints and the absence of triggering developments in recent months.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题