Russia's ongoing military operations remain concentrated in Ukraine through mid-2026, with forces conducting incremental advances in Donetsk oblast and long-range strikes but showing no capacity or intent to open a new conventional front elsewhere. Analysts note depleted conventional forces, high defense spending prioritized for the current conflict, and reconstitution timelines pointing to potential NATO risks only after 2027. Official statements and hybrid activities have focused on testing defenses and supporting the Ukrainian theater rather than signaling imminent invasions of additional countries. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no new invasion in 2026 reflects this sustained focus and absence of triggering developments within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$372,605 交易量
$372,605 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$372,605 交易量
$372,605 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military operations remain concentrated in Ukraine through mid-2026, with forces conducting incremental advances in Donetsk oblast and long-range strikes but showing no capacity or intent to open a new conventional front elsewhere. Analysts note depleted conventional forces, high defense spending prioritized for the current conflict, and reconstitution timelines pointing to potential NATO risks only after 2027. Official statements and hybrid activities have focused on testing defenses and supporting the Ukrainian theater rather than signaling imminent invasions of additional countries. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no new invasion in 2026 reflects this sustained focus and absence of triggering developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$372,605结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military operations remain concentrated in Ukraine through mid-2026, with forces conducting incremental advances in Donetsk oblast and long-range strikes but showing no capacity or intent to open a new conventional front elsewhere. Analysts note depleted conventional forces, high defense spending prioritized for the current conflict, and reconstitution timelines pointing to potential NATO risks only after 2027. Official statements and hybrid activities have focused on testing defenses and supporting the Ukrainian theater rather than signaling imminent invasions of additional countries. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no new invasion in 2026 reflects this sustained focus and absence of triggering developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$372,605结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing military operations remain concentrated in Ukraine through mid-2026, with forces conducting incremental advances in Donetsk oblast and long-range strikes but showing no capacity or intent to open a new conventional front elsewhere. Analysts note depleted conventional forces, high defense spending prioritized for the current conflict, and reconstitution timelines pointing to potential NATO risks only after 2027. Official statements and hybrid activities have focused on testing defenses and supporting the Ukrainian theater rather than signaling imminent invasions of additional countries. Trader consensus at 91.5% for no new invasion in 2026 reflects this sustained focus and absence of triggering developments within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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