Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by incremental advances in areas such as Kostyantynivka and continued long-range strikes through mid-2026, has absorbed the bulk of its forces and resources without evidence of new cross-border operations elsewhere. Recent Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on Russian infrastructure have prompted escalated Russian responses, including ballistic missile threats, yet these remain confined to the existing theater. No verified diplomatic statements, troop movements, or official actions indicate preparations for invasions of additional countries in the current year. Traders appear to view sustained focus on Ukraine, combined with logistical constraints and international monitoring, as the dominant factors supporting the high probability assigned to no new Russian invasion occurring before year-end.