Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine continues to dominate its military resources and strategic focus in 2026, with Russian forces recording sharply reduced territorial gains and high casualties amid Ukrainian counteractions and long-range strikes. Recent assessments show Russian advances averaging roughly one square kilometer per day in mid-2026, far below prior periods, while reconstitution efforts emphasize drones and incremental improvements rather than new expeditionary capacity. U.S. intelligence notes the theoretical possibility of limited probes against NATO members later in the year or beyond, yet no verified preparations or actions point to a fresh full-scale invasion of another state before year-end. Traders price the “No” outcome at 92.5 percent because Russia’s depleted conventional forces, economic pressures, and preoccupation with the existing conflict create substantial barriers to opening a second front in the remaining months.