The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure campaign—centered on a January 2026 executive order declaring Cuba an extraordinary national-security threat, a fuel blockade cutting off Venezuelan and other oil supplies, tariffs on third-country providers, and indictments of regime figures—has produced acute economic hardship and diplomatic negotiations without crossing into direct military intervention. U.S. officials have floated regime-change goals and explored contingency options while simultaneously signaling openness to deals, prisoner releases, and humanitarian aid tied to reforms. With U.S. forces already committed to the Iran theater, Cuba’s limited military capabilities, and the high political and logistical costs of a full-scale invasion, traders see sustained economic and diplomatic tools as the dominant approach through year-end.