Absence of any formal U.S. authorization, troop mobilization, or congressional action for an invasion underpins the 97.4% trader consensus on "No." Bilateral relations continue to emphasize diplomatic channels, trade negotiations under frameworks like USMCA, and security cooperation on narcotics and border enforcement, with Mexican officials repeatedly rejecting unilateral military options while pursuing joint intelligence efforts. Ongoing tensions over cartels and migration have prompted discussions of targeted support or strikes rather than territorial operations. Realistic shifts could stem from abrupt breakdowns in diplomacy, major escalations in cross-border violence, or policy changes tied to electoral pressures before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
3% 概率
$250,845 交易量
$250,845 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 概率
$250,845 交易量
$250,845 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Absence of any formal U.S. authorization, troop mobilization, or congressional action for an invasion underpins the 97.4% trader consensus on "No." Bilateral relations continue to emphasize diplomatic channels, trade negotiations under frameworks like USMCA, and security cooperation on narcotics and border enforcement, with Mexican officials repeatedly rejecting unilateral military options while pursuing joint intelligence efforts. Ongoing tensions over cartels and migration have prompted discussions of targeted support or strikes rather than territorial operations. Realistic shifts could stem from abrupt breakdowns in diplomacy, major escalations in cross-border violence, or policy changes tied to electoral pressures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
交易量
$250,845结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Absence of any formal U.S. authorization, troop mobilization, or congressional action for an invasion underpins the 97.4% trader consensus on "No." Bilateral relations continue to emphasize diplomatic channels, trade negotiations under frameworks like USMCA, and security cooperation on narcotics and border enforcement, with Mexican officials repeatedly rejecting unilateral military options while pursuing joint intelligence efforts. Ongoing tensions over cartels and migration have prompted discussions of targeted support or strikes rather than territorial operations. Realistic shifts could stem from abrupt breakdowns in diplomacy, major escalations in cross-border violence, or policy changes tied to electoral pressures before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$250,845结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Absence of any formal U.S. authorization, troop mobilization, or congressional action for an invasion underpins the 97.4% trader consensus on "No." Bilateral relations continue to emphasize diplomatic channels, trade negotiations under frameworks like USMCA, and security cooperation on narcotics and border enforcement, with Mexican officials repeatedly rejecting unilateral military options while pursuing joint intelligence efforts. Ongoing tensions over cartels and migration have prompted discussions of targeted support or strikes rather than territorial operations. Realistic shifts could stem from abrupt breakdowns in diplomacy, major escalations in cross-border violence, or policy changes tied to electoral pressures before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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