Heightened US-Iran tensions following July 2026 escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent US strikes on Iranian assets, represent the primary driver shaping trader sentiment on further diplomat expulsions. These events broke a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed military exchanges, raising the prospect of reciprocal diplomatic measures by the US, European states, or regional actors over espionage, proxy support for Hezbollah, or national security threats. Prior expulsions, such as the US actions against Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration, illustrate how bilateral frictions often lead to such steps. No major new expulsions have occurred in the past 30 days, but scheduled diplomatic engagements or additional military incidents could shift probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
2026-08-31
8月31日
6%
9月30日
44%
10月31日
50%
$442 交易量
8月31日
$442 交易量
6%
9月30日
$0 交易量
44%
10月31日
$0 交易量
50%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened US-Iran tensions following July 2026 escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent US strikes on Iranian assets, represent the primary driver shaping trader sentiment on further diplomat expulsions. These events broke a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed military exchanges, raising the prospect of reciprocal diplomatic measures by the US, European states, or regional actors over espionage, proxy support for Hezbollah, or national security threats. Prior expulsions, such as the US actions against Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration, illustrate how bilateral frictions often lead to such steps. No major new expulsions have occurred in the past 30 days, but scheduled diplomatic engagements or additional military incidents could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
交易量
$442结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened US-Iran tensions following July 2026 escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent US strikes on Iranian assets, represent the primary driver shaping trader sentiment on further diplomat expulsions. These events broke a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed military exchanges, raising the prospect of reciprocal diplomatic measures by the US, European states, or regional actors over espionage, proxy support for Hezbollah, or national security threats. Prior expulsions, such as the US actions against Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration, illustrate how bilateral frictions often lead to such steps. No major new expulsions have occurred in the past 30 days, but scheduled diplomatic engagements or additional military incidents could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$442结束日期
2026-10-31市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened US-Iran tensions following July 2026 escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent US strikes on Iranian assets, represent the primary driver shaping trader sentiment on further diplomat expulsions. These events broke a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed military exchanges, raising the prospect of reciprocal diplomatic measures by the US, European states, or regional actors over espionage, proxy support for Hezbollah, or national security threats. Prior expulsions, such as the US actions against Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration, illustrate how bilateral frictions often lead to such steps. No major new expulsions have occurred in the past 30 days, but scheduled diplomatic engagements or additional military incidents could shift probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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