Traders assign an 82.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, which has featured U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iranian missile and drone responses, and repeated clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes rather than large-scale ground operations. Recent developments include a pause in major strikes since late July, resumed Iran-Oman talks on transit protocols, and conflicting U.S.-Iranian statements on bilateral engagement, with President Trump describing paused "massive attacks" amid mediation efforts. These factors, combined with the high costs and risks of a boots-on-the-ground campaign in the narrow remaining window, sustain the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
18% 概率
$58,561,347 交易量
$58,561,347 交易量
2026-12-31
是
18% 概率
$58,561,347 交易量
$58,561,347 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Traders assign an 82.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, which has featured U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iranian missile and drone responses, and repeated clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes rather than large-scale ground operations. Recent developments include a pause in major strikes since late July, resumed Iran-Oman talks on transit protocols, and conflicting U.S.-Iranian statements on bilateral engagement, with President Trump describing paused "massive attacks" amid mediation efforts. These factors, combined with the high costs and risks of a boots-on-the-ground campaign in the narrow remaining window, sustain the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
交易量
$58,561,347结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Traders assign an 82.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, which has featured U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iranian missile and drone responses, and repeated clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes rather than large-scale ground operations. Recent developments include a pause in major strikes since late July, resumed Iran-Oman talks on transit protocols, and conflicting U.S.-Iranian statements on bilateral engagement, with President Trump describing paused "massive attacks" amid mediation efforts. These factors, combined with the high costs and risks of a boots-on-the-ground campaign in the narrow remaining window, sustain the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$58,561,347结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 82.5% probability to no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 amid the ongoing 2026 conflict, which has featured U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iranian missile and drone responses, and repeated clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes rather than large-scale ground operations. Recent developments include a pause in major strikes since late July, resumed Iran-Oman talks on transit protocols, and conflicting U.S.-Iranian statements on bilateral engagement, with President Trump describing paused "massive attacks" amid mediation efforts. These factors, combined with the high costs and risks of a boots-on-the-ground campaign in the narrow remaining window, sustain the trader consensus reflected in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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