Diplomatic efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-August 2026, with U.S.-mediated trilateral talks showing limited progress since Geneva meetings in February. Short-term pauses, including the U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire and prisoner swap in May 2026, failed to extend amid mutual violations and accusations. Negotiations in formats including Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled over core issues of territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia rejecting recent Ukrainian offers for unconditional or limited ceasefires as insufficient. Ukrainian proposals for a frontline freeze and bilateral talks, alongside U.S. mediation efforts, have not produced mutual agreement, while both sides maintain battlefield operations and maximalist demands. These dynamics sustain trader skepticism about a comprehensive ceasefire agreement materializing by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$5,915,101 交易量
2026-10-31
10月31日
11%
8月31日
2%
12月31日
27%
$5,915,101 交易量
10月31日
$846,949 交易量
11%
8月31日
$390,783 交易量
2%
12月31日
$2,140,037 交易量
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-August 2026, with U.S.-mediated trilateral talks showing limited progress since Geneva meetings in February. Short-term pauses, including the U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire and prisoner swap in May 2026, failed to extend amid mutual violations and accusations. Negotiations in formats including Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled over core issues of territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia rejecting recent Ukrainian offers for unconditional or limited ceasefires as insufficient. Ukrainian proposals for a frontline freeze and bilateral talks, alongside U.S. mediation efforts, have not produced mutual agreement, while both sides maintain battlefield operations and maximalist demands. These dynamics sustain trader skepticism about a comprehensive ceasefire agreement materializing by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$5,915,101结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-August 2026, with U.S.-mediated trilateral talks showing limited progress since Geneva meetings in February. Short-term pauses, including the U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire and prisoner swap in May 2026, failed to extend amid mutual violations and accusations. Negotiations in formats including Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled over core issues of territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia rejecting recent Ukrainian offers for unconditional or limited ceasefires as insufficient. Ukrainian proposals for a frontline freeze and bilateral talks, alongside U.S. mediation efforts, have not produced mutual agreement, while both sides maintain battlefield operations and maximalist demands. These dynamics sustain trader skepticism about a comprehensive ceasefire agreement materializing by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$5,915,101结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts toward a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled as of mid-August 2026, with U.S.-mediated trilateral talks showing limited progress since Geneva meetings in February. Short-term pauses, including the U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire and prisoner swap in May 2026, failed to extend amid mutual violations and accusations. Negotiations in formats including Geneva and Abu Dhabi have stalled over core issues of territorial control, security guarantees, and monitoring mechanisms, with Russia rejecting recent Ukrainian offers for unconditional or limited ceasefires as insufficient. Ukrainian proposals for a frontline freeze and bilateral talks, alongside U.S. mediation efforts, have not produced mutual agreement, while both sides maintain battlefield operations and maximalist demands. These dynamics sustain trader skepticism about a comprehensive ceasefire agreement materializing by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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